This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Southern 500 at Darlington. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Darlington (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Busch
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Harrison Burton
Projected Finish: 29th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen, 35th)
-11 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-24 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the 40 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished in the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (25 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 41 of 938, 4.37%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 391 of 938, 41.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 376 of 938, 40.09%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 25, 12.0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 121 of 250, 48.4%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 7th -6 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 30th -26 |
| 5. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 14th -9 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 16th -10 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 20th -13 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 11th -2 |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 36th -26 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 19th -8 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 8th +5 |
| 14. | 4 | Josh Berry | 31st -17 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 6th +9 |
| 16. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 37th -21 |
| 17. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 33rd -16 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +5 |
| 19. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +18 |
| 20. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 32nd -12 |
| 21. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 2nd +19 |
| 22. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +5 |
| 23. | 51 | Justin Haley | 27th -4 |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | 24th +0 |
| 25. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 15th +10 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22nd +4 |
| 27. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25th +3 |
| 29. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 12th +17 |
| 30. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 9th +22 |
| 32. | 66 | Timmy Hill | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 71 | Zane Smith | 23rd +13 |
| 37. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 34th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
