This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Kansas Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Kansas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Chris Buescher 14th, Justin Haley 22nd)
-13 of the 37 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 9 drivers finished in the Top 9
Notes from all point race projections this year (29 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 46 of 1,088, 4.23%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 450 of 1,088, 41.36%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 437 of 1,088, 40.17%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 29, 13.79%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 140 of 290, 48.28%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Kyle Larson won the Spring Kansas race by .001 seconds and the stats say that this weekend he will wind up in victory lane at Kansas yet again. Photo by Logan Riely — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 26th -25 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8th -5 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th +0 |
| 6. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 25th -17 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th -5 |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 3rd +7 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th -6 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 32nd -18 |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +2 |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 22nd -5 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 1st +17 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 34th -15 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th +9 |
| 21. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 18th +3 |
| 22. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 4 | Josh Berry | 38th -15 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 12th +12 |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | 35th -10 |
| 26. | 7 | Justin Haley | 33rd -7 |
| 27. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 31st -1 |
| 31. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 15th +16 |
| 32. | 71 | Zane Smith | 10th +22 |
| 33. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 20th +14 |
| 35. | 16 | Ty Dillon | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 23rd +13 |
| 37. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 36th +1 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 37th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.