This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Kansas Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Kansas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Chris Buescher 14th, Justin Haley 22nd)
-13 of the 37 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 9 drivers finished in the Top 9
Notes from all point race projections this year (29 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 46 of 1,088, 4.23%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 450 of 1,088, 41.36%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 437 of 1,088, 40.17%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 29, 13.79%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 140 of 290, 48.28%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 5. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 6. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | – |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 14. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 21. | 10 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 22. | 34 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 23. | 4 | Josh Berry | – |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 26. | 7 | Justin Haley | – |
| 27. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 30. | 15 | Kaz Grala | – |
| 31. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | – |
| 32. | 71 | Zane Smith | – |
| 33. | 41 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 34. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | – |
| 35. | 16 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | – |
| 37. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | – |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
