This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Watkins Glen Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Watkins Glen (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Busch
Finished: 7th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 12th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Corey LaJoie, 15th)
-12 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 5 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (27 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 43 of 1,013, 4.24%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 417 of 1,013, 41.16%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 407 of 1,013, 40.18%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 28, 10.71%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 131 of 270, 48.52%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ross Chastain
One to Watch: A.J. Allmendinger
Disappointment: Bubba Wallace
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 27th -25 |
| 3. | 22 | Joey Logano | 15th -12 |
| 4. | 13 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -32 |
| 5. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 18th -13 |
| 6. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 1st +5 |
| 7. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 12th -5 |
| 8. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 19th -11 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 14th -5 |
| 10. | 24 | William Byron | 34th -24 |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 22nd -11 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 30th -18 |
| 13. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 7th +7 |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +2 |
| 16. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 10th +6 |
| 17. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 23rd -6 |
| 18. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 20th -2 |
| 19. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 11th +8 |
| 20. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 38th -18 |
| 21. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 37th -16 |
| 22. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 8th +14 |
| 23. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 26th -3 |
| 24. | 71 | Zane Smith | 5th +19 |
| 25. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 6th +19 |
| 26. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 16th +10 |
| 27. | 50 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 32nd -5 |
| 28. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 3rd +26 |
| 30. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 31st -1 |
| 31. | 4 | Josh Berry | 25th +6 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 9th +24 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 51 | Justin Haley | 29th +7 |
| 37. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 35th +2 |
| 38. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 24th +14 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
