Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Charlotte Roval

Last week Ricky Stenhouse Jr. upset the applecart as yet another non-playoff driver won a playoff race. With this we head to the Charlotte Roval where the only driver and owner spot clinched have been because of points. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 3rd

• • • Clinched based on points

2) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 7th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 12 points (25th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • Be within 4 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 26 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 30 points of Alex Bowman
      • Be within 31 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 42 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 43 points of Chase Elliott

3) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 26th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4 points (33rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • 6+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • Be within 21 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 25 points of Alex Bowman
      • Be within 26 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 37 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 38 points of Chase Elliott
      • Be within 51 points of Joey Logano
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Logano wins
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Suarez/Cindric/Briscoe wins

4) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 10th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 28+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 23+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • Be within 3 points of Alex Bowman
      • Be within 4 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 15 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 16 points of Chase Elliott
      • Be within 29 points of Joey Logano
      • Be within 36 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 45 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 48 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Alex Bowman
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 16th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 32+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 27+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 5+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 0+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 11 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 12 points of Chase Elliott
      • Be within 25 points of Joey Logano
      • Be within 32 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 41 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 44 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 39th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 32+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 28+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 6+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 2+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • Be within 10 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 11 points of Chase Elliott
      • Be within 24 points of Joey Logano
      • Be within 31 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 40 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 43 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 20th, 25th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 39+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 17+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 13+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 12+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 0+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • Be within 13 points of Joey Logano
      • Be within 20 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 29 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 32 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 55 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 9th, 29th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 45+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 40+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 18+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 14+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 13+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 2+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 12 points of Joey Logano
      • Be within 19 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 28 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 31 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 14th, 33rd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 52+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 31+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 27+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 26+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 15+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 14+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • Be within 6 points of Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 15 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 18 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) Daniel Suarez
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 26th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 34+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 33+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 21+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 21+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 8+ points more than Joey Logano
      • Be within 8 points of Austin Cindric
      • Be within 11 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) Austin Cindric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 32nd, 34th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 43+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 42+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 31+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 30+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 17+ points more than Joey Logano
      • 10+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • Be within 2 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Chase Briscoe
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 24th, 30th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 46+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 45+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 34+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 33+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 20+ points more than Joey Logano
      • 13+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 4+ points more than Austin Cindric
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 3rd

• • • Clinched based on points

2) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 26th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Clinched
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • 1+ point more than the No.20
      • Be within 26 points of the No.11
      • Be within 30 points of the No.48
      • Be within 31 points of the No.12
      • Be within 43 points of the No.9
      • Be within 47 points of the No.45

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 7th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Clinched
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • 1+ point more than the No.5
      • Be within 26 points of the No.11
      • Be within 30 points of the No.48
      • Be within 31 points of the No.12
      • Be within 43 points of the No.9
      • Be within 47 points of the No.45

4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 10th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 28+ points more than the No.5
      • 28+ points more than the No.20
      • Be within 3 points of the No.48
      • Be within 4 points of the No.12
      • Be within 16 points of the No.9
      • Be within 20 points of the No.45
      • Be within 29 points of the No.22
      • Be within 36 points of the No.99
      • Be within 45 points of the No.2
      • Be within 48 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Hendrick Motorsports No.48
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 16th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 32+ points more than the No.5
      • 32+ points more than the No.20
      • 5+ points more than the No.11
      • 0+ points more than the No.12
      • Be within 12 points of the No.9
      • Be within 16 points of the No.45
      • Be within 25 points of the No.22
      • Be within 32 points of the No.99
      • Be within 41 points of the No.2
      • Be within 44 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 39th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 33+ points more than the No.5
      • 32+ points more than the No.20
      • 6+ points more than the No.11
      • 2+ points more than the No.48
      • Be within 11 points of the No.9
      • Be within 15 points of the No.45
      • Be within 24 points of the No.22
      • Be within 31 points of the No.99
      • Be within 40 points of the No.2
      • Be within 43 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 40 points (2nd place finish + 5 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 9th, 29th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 45+ points more than the No.5
      • 45+ points more than the No.20
      • 18+ points more than the No.11
      • 14+ points more than the No.48
      • 13+ points more than the No.12
      • Be within 3 points of the No.45
      • Be within 12 points of the No.22
      • Be within 19 points of the No.99
      • Be within 28 points of the No.2
      • Be within 31 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 52 points (2nd place finish + 17 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 20th, 25th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.5
      • 49+ points more than the No.20
      • 22+ points more than the No.11
      • 18+ points more than the No.48
      • 17+ points more than the No.12
      • 5+ points more than the No.9
      • Be within 8 points of the No.22
      • Be within 15 points of the No.99
      • Be within 24 points of the No.2
      • Be within 27 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) Team Penske No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 14th, 33rd

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 31+ points more than the No.11
      • 27+ points more than the No.48
      • 26+ points more than the No.12
      • 14+ points more than the No.9
      • 10+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 6 points of the No.99
      • Be within 15 points of the No.2
      • Be within 18 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) Trackhouse Racing No.99
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 26th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than the No.11
      • 34+ points more than the No.48
      • 33+ points more than the No.12
      • 21+ points more than the No.9
      • 17+ points more than the No.45
      • 8+ points more than the No.22
      • Be within 8 points of the No.2
      • Be within 11 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) Team Penske No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 32nd, 34th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than the No.11
      • 43+ points more than the No.48
      • 42+ points more than the No.12
      • 30+ points more than the No.9
      • 26+ points more than the No.45
      • 17+ points more than the No.22
      • 10+ points more than the No.99
      • Be within 2 points of the No.14
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Stewart-Haas Racing No.14
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 24th, 30th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.11
      • 46+ points more than the No.48
      • 45+ points more than the No.12
      • 33+ points more than the No.9
      • 29+ points more than the No.45
      • 20+ points more than the No.22
      • 13+ points more than the No.9
      • 4+ points more than the No.2
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above