Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Homestead

Luck was in the air for Joey Logano last week in Las Vegas as after luckily getting into the Round of 8 he got lucky on fuel and won his way into the Championship 4. Now we head to a track where luck means staying out of the wall, Homestead. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joey Logano

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Christopher Bell

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 41+ points more than William Byron
      • 14+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 11+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 6 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 12 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Kyle Larson

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 48+ points more than William Byron
      • 21+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 18+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 1+ point more than Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 5 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) William Byron

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) Denny Hamlin

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) Tyler Reddick

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) Ryan Blaney

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) Chase Elliott

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penske No.22

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.5
      • 41+ points more than the No.24
      • 14+ points more than the No.11
      • 6+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 6 points of the No.12
      • Be within 12 points of the No.9
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 43+ points more than the No.24
      • 16+ points more than the No.11
      • 8+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 4 points of the No.12
      • Be within 10 points of the No.9
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) 23XI Racing No.45

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) Team Penske No.12

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9

• • • Only way to clinch is to win