Last week we saw another non-playoff driver stop playoff drivers from clinching a spot in the next round as Ross Chastain was able to take home the checkered flag. Now we head to a track where the likelihood of a non-playoff winner is even higher, Talladega. Which of course means a driver in the playoffs will win. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.
*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
1) William Byron
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 50+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 50+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 40+ points more than Kyle Larson
- 33+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 30+ points more than Alex Bowman
- 26+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 26+ points more than Joey Logano
- 22+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 12+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 1+ point more than Chase Briscoe
- Be within 3 points of Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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2) Ryan Blaney
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 54+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 46+ points more than Kyle Larson
- 39+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 36+ points more than Alex Bowman
- 32+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 32+ points more than Joey Logano
- 28+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 18+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 7+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 3+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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3) Christopher Bell
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 46+ points more than Kyle Larson
- 39+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 36+ points more than Alex Bowman
- 32+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 32+ points more than Joey Logano
- 28+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 18+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 7+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 3+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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4) Kyle Larson
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 49+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 46+ points more than Alex Bowman
- 42+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 42+ points more than Joey Logano
- 38+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 28+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 17+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 13+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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5) Denny Hamlin
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 53+ points more than Alex Bowman
- 49+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 49+ points more than Joey Logano
- 45+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 35+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 24+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 20+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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6) Alex Bowman
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 52+ points more than Chase Elliott
- 52+ points more than Joey Logano
- 48+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 38+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 27+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 23+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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7) Chase Elliott
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 54+ points more than Joey Logano
- 52+ points more than Tyler Reddick
- 42+ points more than Daniel Suarez
- 31+ points more than Chase Briscoe
- 27+ points more than Austin Cindric
- Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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8) Joey Logano
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) Tyler Reddick
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Daniel Suarez
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) Chase Briscoe
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) Austin Cindric
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 50+ points more than the No.12
- 50+ points more than the No.20
- 45+ points more than the No.5
- 33+ points more than the No.11
- 30+ points more than the No.48
- 26+ points more than the No.9
- 26+ points more than the No.22
- 17+ points more than the No.45
- 12+ points more than the No.99
- 1+ point more than the No.14
- Be within 3 points of the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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2) Team Penske No.12
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 54+ points more than the No.20
- 51+ points more than the No.5
- 39+ points more than the No.11
- 36+ points more than the No.48
- 32+ points more than the No.9
- 32+ points more than the No.22
- 23+ points more than the No.45
- 18+ points more than the No.99
- 7+ points more than the No.14
- 3+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 51+ points more than the No.5
- 39+ points more than the No.11
- 36+ points more than the No.48
- 32+ points more than the No.9
- 32+ points more than the No.22
- 23+ points more than the No.45
- 18+ points more than the No.99
- 7+ points more than the No.14
- 3+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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4) Kyle Larson
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 44+ points more than the No.11
- 41+ points more than the No.48
- 37+ points more than the No.9
- 37+ points more than the No.22
- 28+ points more than the No.45
- 23+ points more than the No.99
- 12+ points more than the No.14
- 8+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 53+ points more than the No.48
- 49+ points more than the No.9
- 49+ points more than the No.22
- 40+ points more than the No.45
- 35+ points more than the No.99
- 24+ points more than the No.14
- 20+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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6) Hendrick Motorsports No.48
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 52+ points more than the No.9
- 52+ points more than the No.22
- 43+ points more than the No.45
- 38+ points more than the No.99
- 27+ points more than the No.14
- 23+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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7) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 54+ points more than the No.22
- 47+ points more than the No.45
- 42+ points more than the No.99
- 31+ points more than the No.14
- 27+ points more than the No.2
- Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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8) Team Penske No.22
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) 23XI Racing No.45
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Trackhouse Racing No.99
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) Stewart-Haas Racing No.14
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) Team Penske No.2
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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