Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Charlotte Roval

At Talladega last week we got to see our first driver playoff contender clinch their spot in the Round of 8 as Sammy Smith was able to survive for the win. Now we head to another wildcard of sorts where we will set the entire Round of 8, the Charlotte Roval. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 22nd

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

2) Chandler Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 5th

• • • Clinched based on points

3) Cole Custer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 26th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 1+ point more than Austin Hill
      • Be within 4 points of Sheldon Creed
      • Be within 14 points of Jesse Love
      • Be within 16 points of Riley Herbst
      • Be within 29 points of A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 36 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 39 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 42 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 45 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

4) Austin Hill
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 23rd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 1+ point more than Cole Custer
      • Be within 4 points of Sheldon Creed
      • Be within 14 points of Jesse Love
      • Be within 16 points of Riley Herbst
      • Be within 29 points of A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 36 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 39 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 42 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 45 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 5th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 24 points (13th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 6+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 6+ points more than Austin Hill
      • Be within 9 points of Jesse Love
      • Be within 11 points of Riley Herbst
      • Be within 24 points of A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 31 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 34 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 37 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 40 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Jesse Love
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 9th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 16+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 16+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 11+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • Be within 1 point of Riley Herbst
      • Be within 14 points of A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 21 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 24 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 27 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 30 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Riley Herbst
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 10th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 18+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 18+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 13+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 3+ points more than Jesse Love
      • Be within 12 points of A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 19 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 22 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 25 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 28 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) A.J. Allmendinger
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 11th, 17th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 31+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 31+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 26+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 16+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 14+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • Be within 6 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 9 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 12 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 15 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 25th, 36th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 38+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 33+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 23+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 21+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 8+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • Be within 2 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 5 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 8 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) Shane Van Gisbergen
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 35th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 41+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 41+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 36+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 26+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 24+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 11+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 4+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 2 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 5 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) Sam Mayer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 38th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 44+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 39+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 29+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 27+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 14+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 7+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 4+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Be within 2 points of Parker Kligerman
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Parker Kligerman
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 12th, 12th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 47+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 42+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 32+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 30+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 17+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 10+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 7+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 4+ points more than Sam Mayer
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 19th

• • • Clinched based on win at Kansas

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.81
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 5th

• • • Clinched based on points

3) Richard Childress Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 23rd

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 3 points of the No.00
      • Be within 4 points of the No.18
      • Be within 14 points of the No.2
      • Be within 16 points of the No.98
      • Be within 29 points of the No.16
      • Be within 37 points of the No.7
      • Be within 38 points of the No.97
      • Be within 41 points of the No.1
      • Be within 45 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

4) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 26th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 5+ points more than the No.21
      • 0+ points more than the No.18
      • Be within 10 points of the No.2
      • Be within 12 points of the No.98
      • Be within 25 points of the No.16
      • Be within 33 points of the No.7
      • Be within 34 points of the No.97
      • Be within 37 points of the No.1
      • Be within 41 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 5th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 23 points (14th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 6+ points more than the No.21
      • 2+ points more than the No.00
      • Be within 9 points of the No.2
      • Be within 11 points of the No.98
      • Be within 24 points of the No.16
      • Be within 32 points of the No.7
      • Be within 33 points of the No.97
      • Be within 36 points of the No.1
      • Be within 40 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Richard Childress Racing No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 9th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 33 points (4th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 16+ points more than the No.21
      • 12+ points more than the No.00
      • 11+ points more than the No.2
      • Be within 1 point of the No.98
      • Be within 14 points of the No.16
      • Be within 22 points of the No.7
      • Be within 23 points of the No.97
      • Be within 26 points of the No.1
      • Be within 30 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Stewart-Haas Racing No.98
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 10th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 18+ points more than the No.21
      • 14+ points more than the No.00
      • 13+ points more than the No.18
      • 3+ points more than the No.2
      • Be within 12 points of the No.16
      • Be within 20 points of the No.7
      • Be within 21 points of the No.97
      • Be within 24 points of the No.1
      • Be within 28 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Kaulig Racing No.16
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 11th, 17th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 31+ points more than the No.21
      • 27+ points more than the No.00
      • 26+ points more than the No.18
      • 16+ points more than the No.2
      • 14+ points more than the No.98
      • Be within 7 points of the No.7
      • Be within 8 points of the No.97
      • Be within 11 points of the No.1
      • Be within 15 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) JR Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 25th, 36th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 39+ points more than the No.21
      • 35+ points more than the No.00
      • 34+ points more than the No.18
      • 24+ points more than the No.2
      • 22+ points more than the No.98
      • 9+ points more than the No.16
      • 0+ points more than the No.97
      • Be within 3 points of the No.1
      • Be within 7 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) Kaulig Racing No.97
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 35th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 40+ points more than the No.21
      • 36+ points more than the No.00
      • 35+ points more than the No.18
      • 25+ points more than the No.2
      • 23+ points more than the No.98
      • 10+ points more than the No.16
      • 2+ points more than the No.7
      • Be within 2 points of the No.1
      • Be within 6 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) JR Motorsports No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 38th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 43+ points more than the No.21
      • 39+ points more than the No.00
      • 38+ points more than the No.18
      • 28+ points more than the No.2
      • 26+ points more than the No.98
      • 13+ points more than the No.16
      • 5+ points more than the No.7
      • 4+ points more than the No.97
      • Be within 3 points of the No.48
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Big Machine Racing No.48
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 12th, 12th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than the No.21
      • 43+ points more than the No.00
      • 42+ points more than the No.18
      • 32+ points more than the No.2
      • 30+ points more than the No.98
      • 17+ points more than the No.16
      • 9+ points more than the No.7
      • 8+ points more than the No.97
      • 5+ points more than the No.1
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above