Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Homestead

Last week at Las Vegas we got to see a riveting finish between two drivers you wouldn’t necessarily expect as A.J. Allmendinger bested Ryan Sieg to clinch his spot in the Championship 4. Now it’s on to another 1.5 mile track where we could see another spot clinched. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) A.J. Allmendinger

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Justin Allgaier

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 40+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 32+ points more than Chandler Smith
      • 24+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 19+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 9+ points more than Sam Mayer
      • Be within 21 points of Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Cole Custer

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 48+ points more than Chandler Smith
      • 40+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 35+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 25+ points more than Sam Mayer
      • Be within 5 points of Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) Chandler Smith

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) Austin Hill

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) Jesse Love

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) Sam Mayer

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) Sammy Smith

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Kaulig Racing No.16

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) JR Motorsports No.7

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 37+ points more than the No.00
      • 37+ points more than the No.20
      • 33+ points more than the No.81
      • 25+ points more than the No.21
      • 20+ points more than the No.2
      • 11+ points more than the No.1
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.20
      • 52+ points more than the No.81
      • 44+ points more than the No.21
      • 39+ points more than the No.2
      • 30+ points more than the No.1
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.81

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) Richard Childress Racing No.21

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) Richard Childress Racing No.2

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) JR Motorsports No.1

• • • Only way to clinch is to win