Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Talladega

At Kansas last week we saw a rare occurrence, an owner playoff team not in the driver playoff win a race as Aric Almirola and the 20 team won the race. Now we head to a track where just about anyone can win, Talladega. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Cole Custer

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than Chandler Smith
      • 41+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 28+ points more than Sam Mayer
      • 25+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 23+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 18+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 16+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 15+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 3+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 1+ point more than Parker Kligerman
      • Be within 7 points of Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

2) Chandler Smith

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 46+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 33+ points more than Sam Mayer
      • 30+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 28+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 23+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 21+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 20+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 8+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 6+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • Be within 2 points of Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Austin Hill

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 43+ points more than Sam Mayer
      • 40+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 38+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 33+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 31+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 30+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 18+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 16+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • 8+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Sam Mayer

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • 51+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 46+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 44+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 43+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 31+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 29+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • 21+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) Sheldon Creed

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
      • 49+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 47+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 46+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 34+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 32+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • 24+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Shane Van Gisbergen

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 49+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 48+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 36+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 34+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • 26+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

7) Jesse Love

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than Riley Herbst
      • 53+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 41+ points more than A.J. Allmendinger
      • 39+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • 31+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

8) Riley Herbst

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

9) Justin Allgaier

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

10) A.J. Allmendinger

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

11) Parker Kligerman

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

12) Sammy Smith

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • • Clinched based on win at Kansas

2) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.81
      • 45+ points more than the No.21
      • 33+ points more than the No.1
      • 29+ points more than the No.18
      • 28+ points more than the No.97
      • 22+ points more than the No.2
      • 20+ points more than the No.98
      • 18+ points more than the No.7
      • 7+ points more than the No.16
      • 5+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.81

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 46+ points more than the No.21
      • 34+ points more than the No.1
      • 30+ points more than the No.18
      • 29+ points more than the No.97
      • 23+ points more than the No.2
      • 21+ points more than the No.98
      • 19+ points more than the No.7
      • 8+ points more than the No.16
      • 6+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Richard Childress Racing No.21

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than the No.1
      • 40+ points more than the No.18
      • 39+ points more than the No.97
      • 33+ points more than the No.2
      • 31+ points more than the No.98
      • 29+ points more than the No.7
      • 18+ points more than the No.16
      • 16+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) JR Motorsports No.1

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 52+ points more than the No.18
      • 51+ points more than the No.97
      • 45+ points more than the No.2
      • 43+ points more than the No.98
      • 41+ points more than the No.7
      • 30+ points more than the No.16
      • 28+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.97
      • 49+ points more than the No.2
      • 47+ points more than the No.98
      • 45+ points more than the No.7
      • 34+ points more than the No.16
      • 32+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

7) Kaulig Raing No.97

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than the No.2
      • 48+ points more than the No.98
      • 46+ points more than the No.7
      • 35+ points more than the No.16
      • 33+ points more than the No.48
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

8) Richard Childress Racing No.2

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

9) Stewart-Haas Racing No.98

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

10) JR Motorsports No.7

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

11) Kaulig Racing No.16

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

12) Big Machine Racing No.48

• • • Only way to clinch is to win