On deck this weekend is the second elimination race for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Heading into the Bank of America ROVAL 400, only one driver (William Byron) is clinched for the Round of 8. Although the initial cutline does not look too close, one of the four drivers below the line winning would bump up that cutline. Between the drivers right above, it would be a close battle to see who will advance to the Round of 8. However, this year’s playoffs have been filled with non-playoff drivers winning. Through the first 5 races, 3 have been won by non-playoff competitors. Based on the field for the ROVAL, it certainly seems plausible that number will increase to 6. Will any of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch be the one to win the ROVAL?
Throwing additional chaos into the usually wild ROVAL race is the new configuration. Announced back during the Coca-Cola 600 weekend, the newly designed ROVAL features a long straightaway heading into Turn 6 with a hairpin Turn 7. Plus, the front stretch chicane has been made tighter. Based on the driver reactions, the ROVAL could be highly dramatic. The new configurations seem set to open the door for more passing. By passing, it might mean more dive bombs, under braking, and using someone else up. For those who enjoy calamity, this weekend’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 might be ideal for you.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Denny Hamlin
No one lucked out more with “the big one” at Talladega than Denny Hamlin. Before the entire field wrecked in front of him, Hamlin looked to be heading into the ROVAL 17 points below the cutline. Instead, he now enters the ROVAL 30 points to the good. That dramatic turn of fortunes will be huge for Hamlin, as the ROVAL has not been kind to the Toyota driver. Last year, Hamlin frequently found himself spinning out and running toward the rear. Ultimately, Hamlin’s day ended behind the wall, finishing in last.
Although he has a healthy advantage to the cutline, Denny Hamlin must avoid repeating last year’s performance. Now, what could be a saving grace for Hamlin is gathering stage points that others willing give up. Outside of the playoff drivers around the cutline, none of the top drivers on Sunday will go after stage points. Non-playoff drivers will certainly be looking to win. This race will likely shape up similarly to Watkins Glen, where the advantage of ignoring points will benefit non-playoff drivers. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin will certainly look to stockpile as many points as possible. Even with a poor finish, Hamlin could lock himself into the Round of 8 by capitalizing during the first two stages.
Shane van Gisbergen
Shane van Gisbergen will be in a third Kaulig Racing entry this weekend. While his teammate, AJ Allmendinger, will surely be the favorite, Shane van Gisbergen will certainly be one to watch. However, this will be Gisbergen’s first time on the ROVAL. Despite being a road course ace, the ROVAL seems to offer something a bit more extreme than the average road course. Will Shane van Gisbergen take well to this track? Maybe. Gisbergen does have experience racing on a speedway modified to be a road course. He has made 5 starts in the 24 Hour Rolex at Daytona, with a best finish of second.
Sunday will mark Shane van Gisbergen’s 10th Cup Series start of the season. This will be his fourth on a road course. After winning in his debut race last year, Gisbergen has yet to find victory lane since. However, he came close in his last road course start. Back at Watkins Glen, Gisbergen looked to have the race won heading into the final lap. Chris Buescher managed to pressure the New Zealander into making a mistake that allowed the 17 to win. Despite missing out on the win, that run could be momentum to boost him to the win this weekend. It might come down to two Kaulig cars though, as Gisbergen will have to unseat the king of the ROVAL.
Austin Cindric
Quite the polar opposite to Denny Hamlin, Austin Cindric’s playoff chances were turned upside due to the accident at Talladega. From leading the race to a DNF, Cindric now heads into the ROVAL 29 points below the cutline. Essentially, it is a must win for Cindric unless he can win both stages. Even then, it will take multiple drivers ahead of him having bad races to make that strategy work. Most likely, Cindric and the 2 team will treat the Bank of America ROVAL 400 as a must win race.
Despite being proficient at road racing, the ROVAL has not been Cindric’s best track during his Cup career. Through his first 2 starts at the ROVAL, Cindric has finished 21st and 25th. 2022 can be excused due to a poorly timed caution, as Cindric qualified 5th and did points race due to his playoff situation. However, last year was simply a miss by the 2 team. What Cindric can potentially hang his hat on is his great record in the Xfinity Series. In 4 starts, Cindric finished no worse than 6th. While the Xfinity and Cup cars are different (along with the new configuration), road courses seem to be where the similarities are closest. Look for Austin Cindric to run for the win and navigate his way to the Round of 8.
Chris Buescher
The reigning road course winner will look to go back-to-back. Chris Buescher finally picked up his first win on a road course back at Watkins Glen. That win was well deserved, as Buescher ranks as one of the best road racers in the NextGen era. This season, his average finish on road courses is 8th. Truly that average should be better, as a pit penalty at the end Stage 2 in Chicago spoiled a potential Top-10 that race. No matter the type of road course, Buescher brings great speed in the 17 RFK car. This weekend should be no different.
Despite a slow start at the ROVAL, the past 3 starts for Buescher have netted fantastic results. His average finish over those 3 races is 5.3. With the benefit of not having to worry about points, the 17 team can replicate their strategy from Watkins Glen to find their way to the front. Expect an aggressive strategy from Scott Graves, attempting to jump the drivers ahead of them during stage breaks. What will be greatly important for Buescher is to put together a strong qualifying effort. While he did win from starting deep in the field at Watkins Glen, his odds will be better at the ROVAL with a better starting spot.
Alex Bowman
Somewhat surprisingly for some, Alex Bowman has rounded into form during the playoffs. Talladega was his worst race, where he finished 16th and netted less than 30 points for the first time. Still, Bowman has yet to finish outside the Top-20 through the first 5 races. Heading into the Bank of America ROVAL 400, Bowman holds a 26 point advantage to the cutline. His strong playoff performance will only look to be grow as Bowman’s ROVAL record is quite impressive.
In his 5 starts, Bowman has netted a Top-10 in each one, including 2 Top-5s. Due to a concussion, Bowman missed the 2022 race at the ROVAL. His lone NextGen starts at the ROVAL, Bowman managed a Top-10 in one of the few bright spots post-injury last year. When it comes to road courses, Bowman is an underrated driver. His Chicago win was not a fluke, but a statement of how well Bowman runs at this type of racing. As for this weekend, the question is whether Bowman feels comfortable enough to chase the win. 26 points at the ROVAL could be safe, but it depends on how well he qualifies on Saturday.
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