Viva Las Vegas, playoff edition. The NASCAR Cup Series will kick off the Round of 8 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday. Battling it out to get to the Championship Four are essentially the top 7 drivers this year and Joey Logano. Despite the first two rounds of the playoffs being “wild cards”, the best drivers rose up and found their way to the Round of 8. Now, the most exciting round of the playoffs is set to kick off. Two vastly different intermediates offer salvation for the remaining 8 drivers before heading to Martinsville. Can one secure their Championship Four spot this weekend? How many of the playoffs drivers will be featured in this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the South Point 400?
Arguably, this is the most important race of the Round of 8. Yes, winning Homestead warrants the same reward as this weekend. Also, it is difficult to avoid how crucial any elimination race is. Yet, winning Las Vegas grants a playoff driver (should one win) the distinct advantage for the remainder of the playoffs. If you win the South Point 400, all the team’s focus can be directly put onto the Championship Race. Truly, there is little to race for in the remaining two races. Granted, Kyle Larson won this race last year and still failed to hoist the championship trophy. However, that result does not diminish the advantage winning the South Point 400.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Joey Logano
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. At the end of the ROVAL, Joey Logano’s valiant effort failed to secure his spot in the Round of 8, at least for the drivers championship. Due to a hard-charging Tyler Reddick, Logano initially was eliminated by a 4 points. Ironically, Austin Dillon, who cost Logano a win and 5 playoff points at Richmond, also hurt Logano’s chances at moving on by bringing out the last caution at the ROVAL. However, the evened year madness that is Logano’s Championship Four destiny kicked in. Alex Bowman failed post-race inspection, disqualifying his race result, and booting him out of the playoffs.
Now that Joey Logano is in the Round of 8, Las Vegas could see history repeat itself. The last time Logano made this round, he won the South Point 400 to advance to the Championship Four. For this weekend, the question will be whether Team Penske Fords can keep up with the Chevys and Toyotas. In the spring, Logano finished 9th after qualifying on pole. His teammate finished third. With the improvements Ford has made since, there should be little question whether Logano can compete for the win. Afterall, it is an even year. Logano does not seem to be one to squander a gift. Watch out for him to compete for the win (and Championship Four appearance) this weekend.
William Byron
No one performed better in the Round of 12 than William Byron. Three straight podium finishes saw Byron easily move through to the Round of 8. Despite not winning a race, Byron and the 24 team rounded back into their early season form that made them a championship favorite. With that momentum, Byron will look to capitalize on it to make his second straight Championship Four. In recent history, Las Vegas has been a kind track for the 24 team.
Over the past 3 Las Vegas races, Byron has led at least a lap. This includes his dominate performance in the spring of 2023. In that race, Byron led a race high 176 laps to the race win. The other two races saw results of 7th and 10th. If Byron is not winning this weekend, his stage racing has been solid during those 3 races as well. He has averaged 4.3 stage points per race, including winning 2 stages. When the margins are going to thin for the cutline, every point will be crucial. Still, Byron should be considered one of the favorite to win the South Point 400. Granted, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate will certainly be the betting favorite.
Christopher Bell
Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a bit boom or bust for Christopher Bell. While he has yet to win at the track, he has put together 2 Top-5s in the NextGen era. In this race last year, Bell nearly pulled off a last lap pass to win the race. If there was an additional lap, Bell likely would have found his way around Kyle Larson. The sting of that defeat helped propel Bell to winning at Homestead the following week. 2023 saw Bell double up on Top-5s, but those great results are sandwiched between a DNF and 33rd place finish.
Which Christopher Bell will show up for this weekend’s race? Lady (bad) luck has played a hand in Bell’s misfortunes at the track. His 2023 DNF truly was no fault of his own, getting caught up in Bubba Wallace’s vendetta against Kyle Larson. Meanwhile, his poor spring result falls under his blame, spinning out during Stage 2. When considering which Bell will show up, the 20 team’s recent performance certainly indicates a strong run. Bell has finished in the Top-10 in 9 of the past 11 races. Plus, the last intermediate saw Bell lead 122 laps. Similar to William Byron and Kyle Larson, put Bell up with the favorites for this weekend.
Zane Smith
If you are looking for who to watch outside the playoff drivers, Zane Smith is certainly one to keep an eye on. After getting off to a poor start this season, Smith has rounded into a consistent mid-pack runner. Rivaling his rookie teammate, Smith is now a frequent competitor in the Top-15, popping a Top-10 occasionally. Since his second at Nashville, Smith only has 5 finishes outside the Top-20 over those 14 races. That might not seem impressive, but it is a drastic improvement considering he had 14 of those finishes during the first 18 races.
Barring a Nashville-level finish, Zane Smith will not be a race winning contender. Despite the improvements from Spire Motorsports, the 71 has not shown the speed to compete for the win. However, a Top-10 finish is certainly not out of question. Smith picked up 2 Top-10s on intermediate tracks (Michigan and Kansas). For a driver who is still unemployed for 2025, another Top-10 could certainly help the argument for him to stay in the Cup Series. If the broadcast will allow it, be sure to keep an eye on Zane Smith. You might be surprised how well he drives in the South Point 400.
Daniel Hemric
Another underdog driver to watch for this weekend is Daniel Hemric. Adorned with the race sponsor on his hood, Hemric has solid numbers at Las Vegas. Through 4 starts, the Kaulig driver is averaging a 20th place finish. This includes a 19th in the spring race earlier in the season. Surprisingly, Hemric has put together good runs on every intermediate this season. Now, that is relative for what is expected out of the Kaulig Racing entries in Cup. No one should think to see Hemric running around inside the Top-10. However, the potential to see the 31 in the Top-20 are not too low.
Daniel Hemric could use a good run this weekend. Not only did Tyler Reddick use him up at the ROVAL, but Kaulig Racing announced that Ty Dillon will be taking his ride next year. At the time of this writing, Hemric has not announced plans for next year. Although nothing this weekend will likely lead to a 2025 job, putting together a solid run will certainly be a boost to his esteem. Surely, there will be a ride for Daniel Hemric in 2025. Perhaps the path to the ride starts by another Top-20 in the South Point 400.
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