Who is ready for the final superspeedway race of 2024? The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for some high banked action. Nestled nicely in the Round of 12, Talladega offers huge gains with potential for devastating losses. Drivers will be on the lookout for “the big one”, which could eliminate much of the field. So far in the playoffs, two drivers have played spoiler. Talladega could easily offer a third non-playoff winner. However, history does not bode well for that narrative. Since the elimination format was implemented, only once has a non-playoff winner has won this race. Will this trend continue or will the chaotic 2024 season takeover? Could one of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch win the YellaWood 500?
While this race usually ends with a playoff driving hoisting the trophy, calamity can (and does) strike playoff drivers. After Ross Chastain won in Kansas, none of the playoff drivers enter Talladega safe from the cutline. Any mistake could be costly, as a lowly finish can put a playoff driver in a desperate situation heading into the ROVAL. This “wild card” round usually lives up to the name. Normally, playing it safe would be the smart move. However, stage points are valuable. When a spot in the Round of 8 could come down to a point or two, the playoff drivers will need to fight for those stage points. The balance between success and calamity will be one to watch from throughout the YellaWood 500.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott enters the YellaWood 500 sitting 4 points above the cutline. It was a tough race for Elliott in the Hollywood Casino 400, as he had to climb through the field from last on the grid. Successfully coming away with a 9th place finish, Elliott also maintained his Cup Series best average finish. Now, Elliott will look to continue his consistency at a superspeedway where he thrives.
During the NextGen era especially, Talladega has been a source of consistency for Chase Elliott. Through the 5 races in this car, Elliott has finished inside the Top-15 every race. This includes his 2022 win in the YellaWood 500, which locked him into the Round of 8. Clearly, Talladega has been Elliott’s strength. While some may argue luck, Elliott usually spends his ‘Dega races running near the front, ahead of any potential accidents. This strategy has benefitted Elliott in heaps of stage points. Elliott has received points in every stage at Talladega since 2022. Including his 2 stage wins, Elliott averages 7.6 points per stage. WIth a narrow margin to the cutline, continuing that trend will be valuable.
Among the player drivers, Chase Elliott should be one of the favorite to leave Talladega in a great position heading to the ROVAL. Look for him to run near the front, collect stage points, and potentially win the YellaWood 500.
Ryan Preece
Ricky Bobby returns to the Talladega this weekend. Ryan Preece will dawn the famous Wonder Bread colors for the second straight YellaWood 500. Last year, those colors guided Preece to a Top-10 finish. Of course, the sequel always has to be bigger and better. Maybe that 41 car will find victory lane to truly live up to the notion “if you ain’t first, you’re last”.
Talladega Nights allusions aside, Preece does enter this weekend on a bit of a hot streak. Over the past 5 races, Preece has finished inside the Top-20 and been the best finishing Stewart-Haas Racing driver in 3 of them. Some of his results do not match the speed he has flashed though. Consistently, Preece has been a Top-10 car at the variety of tracks the Cup Series has visited. This rejuvenation of speed is a welcome one, especially considering the rumors of his 2025 plans.
As for Talladega, this has been the best superspeedway track for Preece. Only twice has Preece found himself with a DNF at Talladega. Granted, this weekend will mark only his fourth start at the track in the NextGen era. Still, an average finish of 16.4 is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering each of his non-DNFs results are 18th or better. While the focus of SHR will be to help boost Chase Briscoe into the next round, do not be surprised to see the Wonder Bread machine shakin-and-bakin toward the front.
Tyler Reddick
After entering the playoffs on an impressive run of top finishes, Tyler Reddick has definitely cooled off during the initial playoff stretch. Outside of Atlanta, Reddick has failed to score a Top-10. Even that Top-10 in Atlanta did not come without strife and struggle. Unfortunately, the inconsistency that ruined Reddick’s 2023 is starting to revive. As the Cup Series heads to Talladega, Reddick sits below the cutline by 4 points.
Although he won the spring race, Talladega is not a track where Reddick can bank on a history of strong performances. Other than said win, Reddick only has 2 Top-10s at Talladega. Both of those were during his days with Richard Childress Racing before the NextGen car. While Reddick has seen notable results this season on superspeedways, the looming threat of Talladega might be an issue for the 45 team. Remember, his spring win came via Ford fumbling the easy win coming to the checkered flag. Will Reddick be able to bank on that luck again this weekend? Can Toyota avoid making another crucial mistake on a superspeedway to help their drivers? Whether good or bad, Reddick will certainly be one to watch this Sunday.
Todd Gilliland
After starting this season impressively, Todd Gilliland has cooled off since the Olympic break. Gilliland has struggled to find that early season speed, with no Top-10s over the past 8 races. Talladega will be a welcome sight for the Front Row driver, as superspeedways has been their bread and butter this season. The first of Gilliland’s 4 Top-10s occurred in the spring race at Talladega. Meanwhile, Gilliland has led laps in 3 of the other 4 superspeedway races. With a late season correction needed, Talladega might be the best thing for Gilliland and the 38 team.
Unlike previous Talladega races, Front Row with forego sending a third entry to the track. Instead, Michael McDowell and Gilliland will bank on the Fords to help propel them to victory. The duo of McDowell and Gilliland has been a tough one to beat at the superspeedways. When they link up, they are formidable tandem to pass. Expect the Front Row drivers to work closely with the Team Penske Fords as well. With 3 playoff drivers, Penske will lean on their technical allies to help push as many of their drivers into the next round as possible. Now, Gilliland will certainly do what he can to nab the victory on Sunday. Expect to see the 38 car out front during the YellaWood 500. Gilliland is a strong dark horse to be a playoff spoiler this weekend.
Anthony Alfredo
For the third time this season, Anthony Alfredo will pilot the Beard Motorsports 62 entry. This will be his second start at Talladega for the team as well. In his limited time in the 62, Alfredo has proven to be a steady hand who capable of delivering on the superspeedways. In qualifying for the Daytona 500, Alfredo locked the 62 team without an issue. During the last Talladega race, Alfredo navigated the 62 to a 6th place finish as well as leading 4 laps. Although it was not Alfredo, the 62 car (with Parker Retzlaff) helped push Harrison Burton to the Coke Zero Sugar 400 win.
Of course, the opportunity for a win for Anthony Alfredo is a slim one. Despite the strong performances from Alfredo and Beard Motorsports, the likelihood of him being pushed to victory is low. However, Alfredo could still factor into the late stages of the race. If he manages to avoid trouble, there is no reason why the 62 will not be running near or in the Top-10 in the final laps. Based on this season’s performances, there should be an expectation that Alfredo survives to the end. Usually, the 62 runs in the tail-end pack to avoid carnage. If that continues this weekend, Anthony Alfredo might be in for a solid run in what is likely his final Cup Series start of 2024.
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