This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Homestead Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Homestead (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 35th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Justin Haley 17th)
-12 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (33 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,241, 4.32%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 509 of 1,241, 41.02%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 501 of 1,241, 40.37%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 33, 12.12%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 163 of 330, 49.39%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Ryan Blaney
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 6th -4 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 13th -10 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 17th -10 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 23rd -15 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 9th +1 |
| 11. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 33rd -21 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 19th -5 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +13 |
| 16. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 71 | Zane Smith | 30th -13 |
| 18. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 36th -18 |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +12 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 16th +4 |
| 21. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 31st -10 |
| 22. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 12th +10 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 8th +16 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 29th -3 |
| 27. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 10th +17 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th +4 |
| 30. | 7 | Justin Haley | 34th -4 |
| 31. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 32nd +0 |
| 33. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 37th -4 |
| 34. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 43 | Erik Jones | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 24th +13 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 38th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
