This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Homestead Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Homestead (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 35th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Justin Haley 17th)
-12 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (33 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,241, 4.32%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 509 of 1,241, 41.02%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 501 of 1,241, 40.37%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 33, 12.12%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 163 of 330, 49.39%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Ryan Blaney
Tyler Reddick has been tabbed as the winner in the previous two projections, so I’m sorry if this jinxes him, but the stats say the Pole winner will wind up in victory lane after the race. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 6th -4 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 13th -10 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 17th -10 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 23rd -15 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 9th +1 |
| 11. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 33rd -21 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 19th -5 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +13 |
| 16. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 71 | Zane Smith | 30th -13 |
| 18. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 36th -18 |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +12 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 16th +4 |
| 21. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 31st -10 |
| 22. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 12th +10 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 8th +16 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 29th -3 |
| 27. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 10th +17 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th +4 |
| 30. | 7 | Justin Haley | 34th -4 |
| 31. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 32nd +0 |
| 33. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 37th -4 |
| 34. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 43 | Erik Jones | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 24th +13 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 38th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.