This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Las Vegas Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Las Vegas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 11th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Christopher Bell 2nd)
-6 of the 38 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-12 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished in the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (32 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 52 of 1,204, 4.32%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 494 of 1,204, 41.03%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 486 of 1,204, 40.37%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 32, 12.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 156 of 320, 48.75%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Ryan Blaney
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 35th -34 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8th -6 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 11th -8 |
| 4. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 6th -1 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 30th -24 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 33rd -22 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 36th -24 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 23rd -10 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12th +3 |
| 16. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 3rd +13 |
| 17. | 7 | Justin Haley | 17th +0 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 34th -16 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 37th -18 |
| 20. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 32nd -12 |
| 21. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 18th +3 |
| 22. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th +12 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 25th -2 |
| 24. | 71 | Zane Smith | 16th +8 |
| 25. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 20th +5 |
| 26. | 4 | Josh Berry | 24th +2 |
| 27. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 31st -3 |
| 29. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 19th +10 |
| 30. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 14th +17 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 9th +23 |
| 33. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 28th +5 |
| 34. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 15 | Cody Ware | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27th +9 |
| 37. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 15th +22 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
