Tuesday, December 3, 2024
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Talladega Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Talladega (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 26th
Last weeks winner: Ross Chastain
Projected Finish: 18th

Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 2nd, Ty Gibbs 5th, Alex Bowman 6th)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 2 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8

Notes from all point race projections this year (30 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 49 of 1,126, 4.35%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 467 of 1,126, 41.47%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 451 of 1,126, 40.05%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 30, 13.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 147 of 300, 49.00%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Todd Gilliland
Disappointment: Denny Hamlin

The last time the Cup Series was on a “normal” Superspeedway track Kyle Busch was this close to victory. However, the stats say this week he will get to the checkered flag first. Photo by Logan Riely — Getty Images

Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 8 Kyle Busch 19th -18
2. 1 Ross Chastain 40th -38
3. 24 William Byron 3rd +0
4. 12 Ryan Blaney 39th -35
5. 9 Chase Elliott 29th -24
6. 38 Todd Gilliland 23rd -17
7. 48 Alex Bowman 16th -9
8. 2 Austin Cindric 32nd -24
9. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 11th -2
10. 6 Brad Keselowski 2nd +8
11. 20 Christopher Bell 6th +5
12. 14 Chase Briscoe 30th -18
13. 5 Kyle Larson 4th +9
14. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1st +13
15. 51 Corey LaJoie 18th -3
16. 62 Anthony Alfredo 24th -8
17. 23 Bubba Wallace 9th +8
18. 31 Daniel Hemric 38th -20
19. 34 Michael McDowell 37th -18
20. 99 Daniel Suarez 26th -6
21. 45 Tyler Reddick 20th +1
22. 41 Ryan Preece 35th -13
23. 54 Ty Gibbs 13th +10
24. 17 Chris Buescher 17th +7
25. 10 Noah Gragson 25th +0
26. 43 Erik Jones 5th +21
27. 22 Joey Logano 33rd -6
28. 7 Justin Haley 7th +21
29. 4 Josh Berry 36th -7
30. 13 A.J. Allmendinger 28th +2
31. 21 Harrison Burton 34th -3
32. 11 Denny Hamlin 10th +22
33. 15 Cody Ware 12th +21
34. 3 Austin Dillon 8th +26
35. 77 Carson Hocevar 14th +21
36. 71 Zane Smith 21st +15
37. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 31st +6
38. 16 Shane Van Gisbergen 15th +23
39. 44 J.J. Yeley 27th +12
40. 78 B.J. McLeod 22nd +18

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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