This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Talladega Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Talladega (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 26th
Last weeks winner: Ross Chastain
Projected Finish: 18th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 2nd, Ty Gibbs 5th, Alex Bowman 6th)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 2 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (30 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 49 of 1,126, 4.35%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 467 of 1,126, 41.47%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 451 of 1,126, 40.05%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 30, 13.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 147 of 300, 49.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Todd Gilliland
Disappointment: Denny Hamlin
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 19th -18 |
| 2. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 40th -38 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 39th -35 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 29th -24 |
| 6. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 23rd -17 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 16th -9 |
| 8. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 32nd -24 |
| 9. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 11th -2 |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 30th -18 |
| 13. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 1st +13 |
| 15. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 62 | Anthony Alfredo | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 9th +8 |
| 18. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 38th -20 |
| 19. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 37th -18 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 26th -6 |
| 21. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th +1 |
| 22. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 35th -13 |
| 23. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 13th +10 |
| 24. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 17th +7 |
| 25. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 43 | Erik Jones | 5th +21 |
| 27. | 22 | Joey Logano | 33rd -6 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 7th +21 |
| 29. | 4 | Josh Berry | 36th -7 |
| 30. | 13 | A.J. Allmendinger | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 10th +22 |
| 33. | 15 | Cody Ware | 12th +21 |
| 34. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 8th +26 |
| 35. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 14th +21 |
| 36. | 71 | Zane Smith | 21st +15 |
| 37. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st +6 |
| 38. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 15th +23 |
| 39. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 27th +12 |
| 40. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 22nd +18 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
