Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Martinsville

Last week at Homestead we got to see an intense battle for the lead late in the race that saw Tyler Reddick blow by Ryan Blaney for the win and clinch his first Championship 4 Cup appearance. Now there is one race left with 2 more spots to fill in the Championship 4 as we head to Martinsville. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 28th

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 35th

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

3) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 4th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 21 points of William Byron
      • Be within 29 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 39 points of Denny Hamlin
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Larson/Hamlin wins
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if Blaney/Elliott wins

4) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 6th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 23+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • Be within 6 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 17 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 37 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 42 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 13th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 30+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 8+ points more than William Byron
      • Be within 10 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 30 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 35 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 41+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 19+ points more than William Byron
      • 12+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • Be within 19 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 24 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 32nd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than William Byron
      • 31+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 20+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 4 points of Chase Elliott
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to Clinch

8) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 5th, 33rd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than William Byron
      • 36+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 26+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 6+ points more than Ryan Blaney
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to Clinch

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penske No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 28th

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 35th

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 4th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 21 points of the No.24
      • Be within 24 points of the No.5
      • Be within 39 points of the No.11
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.5/No.11 wins
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if the No.12/No.9 wins

4) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 6th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 23+ points more than the No.20
      • Be within 1 point of the No.5
      • Be within 17 points of the No.11
      • Be within 37 points of the No.12
      • Be within 42 points of the No.9
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Hendrick Motorsport No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 13th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 25+ points more than the No.20
      • 3+ points more than the No.24
      • Be within 15 points of the No.11
      • Be within 35 points of the No.12
      • Be within 40 points of the No.9
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 41+ points more than the No.20
      • 19+ points more than the No.24
      • 17+ points more than the No.5
      • Be within 19 points of the No.12
      • Be within 24 points of the No.9
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 32nd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than the No.24
      • 36+ points more than the No.5
      • 20+ points more than the No.11
      • Be within 4 points of the No.9
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to Clinch

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 5th, 33rd

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than the No.24
      • 36+ points more than the No.5
      • 26+ points more than the No.11
      • 6+ points more than the No.12
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to Clinch