After a long season, the NASCAR Cup Series 2024 campaign will come to a close. Out in Phoenix, the Championship Race will take center stage. Four drivers will compete to be crowned the champion. Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron make up an unexpected Championship Four, especially considering that two of the four were technically eliminated at some point. Nonetheless, these four will be the drivers (and teams) that will have the entire NASCAR world focused on them through Sunday. As for the Critical Path Security 5Â Drivers to Watch for the Championship Race, none of them will be featured.
Since most (if not all) of the attention this week will be paid to the Championship Four, 5 Drivers to Watch will look to highlight other drivers in the field. Regardless of how NASCAR formats their finale, there are always fantastic stories to watch in a season’s last race. 40 drivers will be on track for the final time in 2024. Everyone has something to race for, even if they are not part of the Championship Four. Stewart-Haas Racing will cease to exist after Sunday. There are drivers who have no 2025 plans lined up yet. Others might be making their last Cup Series start for a bit or forever. Not every driver’s story can be featured here. But these are the 5 drivers to highlight heading into the Championship Race.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Martin Truex Jr
Once again fans ask, can someone win a race in their retirement season? Not since Jeff Gordon in 2015 has a driver in his retirement year been able to find victory lane. Kevin Harvick had a couple of close calls last year. Now, Martin Truex Jr will head into the Championship Race winless in his final fulltime season. Yes, Truex has already announced that he will run some races next season (including the Daytona 500). However, there is something special about a driver winning it in the season they have announced to be hanging it up.
What are the odds that Martin Truex Jr can get it done in Phoenix? Well, it depends on which Truex and 19 team show up. Early this season, Truex was a top contender. Many had him penciled into the Championship Four when he was leading the Cup Series in average finish. However, mistakes have been devastating to the 19 team. Case and point, last week saw a speeding penalty upend a race where Truex started on the pole. If Truex can avoid mistakes, he has a shot at the race win. He has a Phoenix win (2021) and is coming off back-to-back Top-10s at the track. While he would not be the favorite, it would not be surprising to see Truex receive a winner’s send off.
Jeb Burton
Jeb Burton will be stepping back inside a Cup Series car for the first time since 2019. This time, he will entering the race for Team AmeriVet. For Team AmeriVet, this will be their first entry since the Coca-Cola 600. While no driver has been announced for them next season, Team AmeriVet has said they plan on running about half the 2025 season. Could Burton be in line to make some starts for the team next year? Who knows, but a solid run for the 50 car at Phoenix might help Burton’s odds.
Now, Jeb Burton and Team AmeriVet will not be running competitively with most of the chartered teams. During the Coca-Cola 600, Ty Dillon brought home the 50 car 2 laps down in 36th. A similar result should be expected from Burton this weekend. The big question is whether Team AmeriVet can run better than NY Racing and MBM Motorsports. Outside of non-chartered entries from the existing teams, AmeriVet could establish themselves as the top open team. If you enjoy watching the leaderboard during a race, keep an eye out for the battle between the 50, 66, and 44.
Chris Buescher
Martinsville was a horrid weekend for Chris Buescher and the 17 team. Poor practice, qualifying, and race must have left a bad taste heading into the final race. Previously, Phoenix was a bad track for Buescher. Prior to the NextGen, Buescher never had a Top-10 at the track. However, the 17 team has found strength in the desert. Since the NextGen was implemented, Buescher has averaged a 10.6 finish with his last two results being Top-5s. Until a poor pitstop last year, Buescher looked to be a contender for the win.
Ross Chastain’s win last year throws more expectation that a non-playoff driver can pull out the win. Granted, Chastain blocked the faster Ryan Blaney late in that race to bring home the win. Regardless, it is not certain that a Championship Four driver will end up winning this year. If Chris Buescher can run similar to how he did last year, he has a great shout at winning. However, he would have to break a trend in order to win. Buescher will be running with Fastenal on the hood, a sponsor he already has won with. Will Buescher win with the same primary sponsor for the second time?
Ty Gibbs
Similar to Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs has been a tale of two seasons. Earlier in the year, it seemed destined that the young driver would find victory lane. Bristol was his best race, leading 137 and sweeping the stages. The Coca-Cola 600 was another race where Gibbs ran upfront for the majority of a race. However, the long season slowly withered away his performance. He strong results were stringed further apart while the 54 car became the face of Toyota’s engine issues.
Although Ty Gibbs made the playoffs this season, the year would feel a little disappointing if it ended winless. What are his odds for Phoenix? If the engine holds up, Gibbs has a decent shot at the win. He led 57 laps in the spring and finished 3rd. Outside of Christopher Bell, Gibbs was the best car on track. With no Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in the Championship Four, none of the teams should have a massive advantage over the others. Gibbs is a good longshot bet for pick up the win in Phoenix. For Joe Gibbs, having his grandson win the season finale would be a small reprieve from the disappointment of no JGR cars in the Championship Four.
Kyle Busch
It all comes down to this. One last race to determine whether Kyle Busch’s season-win streak will extend to 20. For Busch, this is the most important thing that he was driving for this season. He has come close to winning a couple times this season. None closer than the .007 seconds he lost the spring Atlanta race. However, Busch also finished second at Daytona and Darlington. Now, he has to find a way to win at a track he has not won at since 2019.
2024 has been a dud of a season for Busch. Even without the win, the 8 team struggled to find consistency. Outside of the short stretch after the Olympic break, Busch has been largely a non-factor in most of the races this year. It is why he was rumored to be leaving Richard Childress Racing. While those rumors have settled down, Busch cannot be thrilled with how the season has gone. Losing the streak will be one thing, but how the 8 team responds should be an interesting storyline heading into the offseason. Could the Kyle Busch revenge tour unfold in 2025? Perhaps. Maybe that can be avoided if Busch manages to find victory lane in the finale.
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