For 6 playoff drivers, Martinsville Speedway represents the last gasp for the Championship Four. Heading into the Xfinity 500, 4 of the 6 playoff drivers have a shot of pointing their way to Phoenix. The other 2 face must win situations to keep their championship hopes alive. What better place to host an elimination race than Martinsville? While short tracks have grown unpopular during the NextGen era, the drama of an elimination race has bode well for the paper clip. With only two spots on the line, the focus of this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Xfinity 500 will focus on the playoff drivers.
Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick can breath easy this weekend. With their Championship Four spots locked up via a win, there is nothing at stake for them. At best, they can only aid one of their teammates to securing their spot to chase the championship trophy. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is likely the only other playoff driver feeling somewhat comfortable. Heading into the Xfinity 500, Bell sits 29 points above the cutline. However, what could be more important are the 22 points that separate Bell from William Byron. Should a playoff driver from below Bell (and Byron) win on Sunday, then that point difference will be the key one. With so much at stake this weekend, time to take a deep dive for the 5 Drivers to Watch.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney faces a similar situation as he did one year ago. Heading into the Xfinity 500, Blaney must win at Martinsville to defend his championship at Phoenix. Last year, Blaney finally notched his first Martinsville win. Blaney has been strong at the short track for his entire career. Prior to last year’s win, Blaney had racked up 377 laps led with an average finish in the Top-10. With that win under his belt, the Team Penske driver should carry the confidence that he can get the job done again.
Over the past 5 Martinsville races, Ryan Blaney has finished no worse than 7th. Since 2019, Blaney has only finished outside the Top-10 twice, with back-to-back 11th place finishes in 2021. After letting a win slip away last week, Martinsville is the ideal bounce back track for the 12 team. Although starting 14th does not seem to indicate race winning speed, Blaney qualified 11th last year before winning this race. Every ounce of effort will be toward going after the win. Being 38 points below the cutline (with 2 drivers in between) mean that the mission is straight forward. Blaney and the 12 team will only strategize to win the race.
Denny Hamlin
Prior to Denny Hamlin’s rough Saturday, he was going to be one to watch. Another driver who thrives at Martinsville, Hamlin entered this weekend sitting 18 points below the cutline. While it is not mathematically impossible for Hamlin to point his way in, the easier path will be to win. However, Hamlin has not won at Martinsville since 2015. During this drought, Hamlin has collected 9 Top-5s, including a streak of 3 prior to the spring race. During his win drought, the 11 driver has led 1,136 laps. Despite the lack of recent wins, it is difficult not to feel good about Hamlin at Martinsville.
However, those good feelings might have gone away after Denny Hamlin wrecked in practice. As he exited Turn 2, the throttle got stuck and Hamlin backed into the Turn 3 wall. Now, Hamlin will be starting dead last at a place where track position usually is king. It will take a herculean effort from the 11 team to win the Xfinity 500. With the practice wreck, it feels as if the final nail in the 2024 coffin has hit. Since the engine penalty before the playoffs began, the 11 team has been a shell of its former self. Hamlin has not won a race since Dover in the spring. If there was a time to get the mojo back, Sunday would be it.
Chase Elliott
The best qualifying playoff driver on Saturday was Chase Elliott. He will lineup on the outside lane of the front row. With starting upfront, that is where Elliott hopes to stay for the entirety of the Xfinity 500. Sitting last in the playoff standings, the only way to advance to Phoenix is to win. What was promising for the 9 team was their performance at Homestead. Despite having the best average finish in the Cup Series, Elliott has failed to demonstrate consistent winning speed. Homestead was the first flash of that since 2022 truly.
Chase Elliott’s history at Martinsville Speedway potentially promises a strong performance this weekend. In 18 starts, Elliott has racked up 1,104 laps led with an average finish of 12.7. 4 different times has Elliott broke triple digits in laps led. However, the strong runs have not always been reflected by a solid finish. Only his race win in 2020 saw Elliott finish better than 10th in a race he led triple-digit laps. Plus, Elliott’s Martinsville numbers dip during the NextGen ere. This year’s spring race was the first Top-5 for the 9 driver since spring of 2021. Which Chase Elliott will show up on Sunday? The 2024 model of consistency without race winning pace or the driver who can dominate and pick up his second Martinsville win.
Kyle Larson
Although Kyle Larson’s last ditch effort to win in Homestead felt like a death blow to his championship hopes, he only sits 7 points below the cutline. If there is not a new playoff winner, the final spot might come down between teammates. At that point, who do you trust more? Kyle Larson, arguably the most talented driver in the field who tends to stumble over himself to prevent wins, or William Byron, the master of the spring Martinsville race who has seen misfortune in the fall?
What might be the shot in the arm for the Larson fans out there is the fact that Larson has won each elimination race thus far. Both Bristol and the ROVAL went to Larson. Now, Larson went into each of those races above the cutline comfortably. There was little pressure to need to win in order to advance into the playoffs. That cannot be said for this weekend. 7 points is nothing, especially with stage points. However, the big issue could be a winner from behind Larson. Instead of a 7 point gap, it would turn into a 36 deficit. Either way, Larson and the 5 team will likely focus their efforts to win the race. It will be an entertaining watch to see how Kyle Larson (and William Byron) handle the cutline battle.
Ryan Preece
For the non-playoff driver this week, Ryan Preece should be the one you are watching. Preece is a short track expert, evident by his rise to the Cup Series. However, that has not translated into the best results for Preece. In 10 starts, Preece has only managed a 23.8 average finish with a single Top-10. That does not mean he has not shown great pace at the paper clip. Last year in the spring race, Preece qualified on pole and led the initial 135 laps. A speeding penalty ruined his race. For the Xfinity 500, the SHR driver qualified 8th.
Additionally, Preece picked up that first (and only) Top-10 during the spring race. Fresh off that solid finish, Preece will be looking to replicate that performance. This would also come off the back of a test session in Homestead where Preece drove for his likely 2025 employer. In the worst kept secret, Ryan Preece looks destined for RFK Racing in a third fulltime entry. The Homestead test essentially solidified that without a formal announcement. With those rumors circulating, Preece has been putting together better runs. Coming off a Top-10 at Homestead, could Preece be in line to play spoiler with this momentum?
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