This article is a statistical summary of the race finish projections from the 2024 season. While the overall stats aren’t what I was hoping to achieve this year, I believe they are all still pretty sporty and the final projection at Phoenix was very good. So going out on a high note enjoy these stats and let’s start getting ready for the Daytona 500 projection next February.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Corey LaJoie 32nd)
-17 of the 40 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-26 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-7 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (36 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,356, 4.42%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 528 of 1,356, 41.81%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 541 of 1,356, 39.90%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 36, 13.89%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 182 of 360, 50.56%
Race Winners correctly predicted
-William Byron (COTA), Kyle Larson (Spring Kansas, Sonoma, Fall Bristol), Tyler Reddick (Homestead)
Worst Projected Race Winners finishing positions
-Kyle Larson (Chicago 39th), Martin Truex Jr. (Fall Richmond 37th), Tyler Reddick (Fall Las Vegas 35th), Kyle Larson (Iowa 34th), Kyle Larson (Michigan 34th)
Projected Race Winner stats (correct/predicted)
-Kyle Larson (3/11), Denny Hamlin (0/5), William Byron (1/4), Tyler Reddick (1/4), Kyle Busch (0/4), Ryan Blaney (0/3), Martin Truex Jr. (0/3), Ross Chastain (0/1), Chase Elliott (0/1)
Worst Projected finish by winner in a race
-Tyler Reddick (Spring Talladega 34th), Harrison Burton (Fall Daytona 29th), Ryan Blaney (Pocono 19th), Chase Briscoe (Fall Darlington 19th), Austin Dillon (Fall Richmond 18th), Ross Chastain (Fall Kansas 18th)
Race with most drivers correctly projected
-COTA 5 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 1st, Ty Gibbs 3rd, Carson Hocevar 22nd, Kamui Kobayashi 29th, Daniel Hemric 37th)
Races with 0 drivers correctly projected
-Spring Bristol, Spring Talladega, Iowa, Watkins Glen
Number of correct projection finishes by driver
-William Byron (6), Alex Bowman (4), Ty Gibbs (4), Christopher Bell (3), Corey LaJoie (3), Erik Jones (3), Kyle Larson (3), Tyler Reddick (3), Carson Hocevar (2), Daniel Suarez (2), J.J. Yeley (2), Josh Berry (2), Justin Haley (2), Austin Cindric (1), Austin Dillon (1), Chad Finchum (1), Chase Briscoe (1), Chase Elliott (1), Chris Buescher (1), Daniel Hemric (1), David Starr (1), Denny Hamlin (1), Derek Kraus (1), Harrison Burton (1), Joey Logano (1), Josh Bilicki (1), Kamui Kobayashi (1), Kaz Grala (1), Kyle Busch (1), Martin Truex Jr. (1), Noah Gragson (1), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (1), Ross Chastain (1), Shane Van Gisbergen (1), Brad Keselowski (0), Bubba Wallace (0), John H. Nemechek (0), Michael McDowell (0), Ryan Blaney (0), Ryan Preece (0), Todd Gilliland (0), Zane Smith (0)
Number of correct projection finishes by position
-1st (5), 2nd (4), 3rd (6), 4th (1), 5th (1), 6th (2), 7th (0), 8th (1), 9th (1), 10th (2), 11th (1), 12th (1), 13th (2), 14th (3), 15th (2), 16th (2), 17th (1), 18th (1), 19th (0), 20th (1), 21st (1), 22nd (2), 23rd (0), 24th (2), 25th (2), 26th (0), 27th (0), 28th (0), 29th (2), 30th (3), 31st (0), 32nd (2), 33rd (1), 34th (0), 35th (2), 36th (0), 37th (3), 38th (2), 39th (0), 40th (1)
Races with most projected T10 finishers actually finishing in T10
-Charlotte (8), Fall Phoenix (8), 8 races tied at 7
Races with least projected T10 finishers actually finishing in T10
-Daytona 500 (1), Spring Talladega (1), Nashville (2), Watkins Glen (2), Fall Talladega (2)
Races with most drivers finishing within 5 spots of projected finish
-Fall Phoenix (26), COTA (21), Charlotte (21), Fall Richmond (21), Fall Bristol (21)
Races with least drivers finishing within 5 spots of projected finish
-Spring Talladega (7), Nashville (8), Fall Talladega (8), Daytona 500 (10), Spring Atlanta (10), New Hampshire (10)
Races with least drivers finishing 10+ spots of projected finish
-Spring Richmond (6), COTA (7), Fall Phoenix (7), Spring Martinsville (8), Spring Talladega (10), Sonoma (10), Fall Bristol (10)
Races with most drivers finishing 10+ spots of projected finish
-Fall Daytona (24), Fall Talladega (22), Daytona 500 (21), Spring Atlanta (21), Indianapolis (21)
