This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Martinsville Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Martinsville (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 1st, Kaz Grala 32nd, J.J. Yeley 38th)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (34 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 56 of 1,279, 4.37%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 528 of 1,279, 41.28%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 519 of 1,279, 40.58%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 34, 14.71%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 169 of 340, 49.71%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Ryan Preece
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 22nd -19 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 14th -8 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th -10 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 10th -1 |
| 10. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 15th -5 |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 32nd -21 |
| 12. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 8th +6 |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 23rd -8 |
| 16. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 26th -10 |
| 17. | 4 | Josh Berry | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 25th -7 |
| 19. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 34th -15 |
| 20. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 33rd -13 |
| 21. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 30th -9 |
| 22. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 9th +13 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 7th +16 |
| 24. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 36th -12 |
| 25. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 28th -3 |
| 26. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 4th +22 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th +8 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 11th +18 |
| 30. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 17th +14 |
| 32. | 7 | Justin Haley | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 27th +7 |
| 35. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 35th +0 |
| 36. | 71 | Zane Smith | 21st +15 |
| 37. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 37th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
