This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Phoenix Championship race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Phoenix (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Alex Bowman 13th, Corey LaJoie 35th, Josh Bilicki 37th)
-8 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (35 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,316, 4.48%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 541 of 1,316, 41.11%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 534 of 1,316, 40.58%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 35, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 174 of 350, 49.71%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Austin Dillon
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 17th -15 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th -3 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th -5 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 40th -33 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th +2 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -8 |
| 12. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 29th -17 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 18th -5 |
| 14. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th +6 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +8 |
| 21. | 7 | Justin Haley | 28th -7 |
| 22. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +15 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 26th -2 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 24th +1 |
| 26. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 31st -5 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 30th -3 |
| 28. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +18 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -4 |
| 30. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 23rd +8 |
| 32. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd +0 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 39th -6 |
| 34. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 37th -3 |
| 35. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 36th -1 |
| 36. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th +9 |
| 37. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 25th +12 |
| 38. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 34th +4 |
| 39. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 35th +4 |
| 40. | 50 | Jeb Burton | 38th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
