This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Phoenix Championship race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Phoenix (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Alex Bowman 13th, Corey LaJoie 35th, Josh Bilicki 37th)
-8 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (35 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,316, 4.48%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 541 of 1,316, 41.11%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 534 of 1,316, 40.58%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 35, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 174 of 350, 49.71%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Austin Dillon
Based on the stats it’s Kyle Larson who will take home the race win today, but it’s Tyler Reddick who will leave the 2024 Champion. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 17th -15 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th -3 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th -5 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 40th -33 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th +2 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -8 |
| 12. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 29th -17 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 18th -5 |
| 14. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th +6 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +8 |
| 21. | 7 | Justin Haley | 28th -7 |
| 22. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +15 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 26th -2 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 24th +1 |
| 26. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 31st -5 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 30th -3 |
| 28. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +18 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -4 |
| 30. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 23rd +8 |
| 32. | 51 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd +0 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 39th -6 |
| 34. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 37th -3 |
| 35. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 36th -1 |
| 36. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th +9 |
| 37. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 25th +12 |
| 38. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 34th +4 |
| 39. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 35th +4 |
| 40. | 50 | Jeb Burton | 38th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.