This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Daytona 500. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Daytona Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Superspeedway (Drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-drafting tracks weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Corey LaJoie 32nd)
-17 of the 40 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-26 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-7 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections last year (36 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,356, 4.42%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 528 of 1,356, 41.81%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 541 of 1,356, 39.90%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 36, 13.89%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 182 of 360, 50.56%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: A.J. Allmendinger
Disappointment: Denny Hamlin
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 34th -33 |
| 2. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 29th -27 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 31st -28 |
| 4. | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | 38th -34 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th +0 |
| 8. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 41st -33 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 40th -31 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -5 |
| 11. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 8th +3 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 26th -14 |
| 13. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +12 |
| 14. | 22 | Joey Logano | 35th -21 |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 01 | Corey LaJoie | 22nd -6 |
| 17. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18th -1 |
| 18. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +14 |
| 19. | 38 | Zane Smith | 36th -17 |
| 20. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 43 | Erik Jones | 12th +9 |
| 22. | 41 | Cole Custer | 21st +1 |
| 23. | 40 | Justin Allgaier | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 91 | Helio Castronevez | 39th -15 |
| 25. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +12 |
| 26. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 2nd +24 |
| 27. | 7 | Justin Haley | 19th +8 |
| 28. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 11th +17 |
| 29. | 51 | Cody Ware | 25th +4 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 5th +25 |
| 31. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 14th +17 |
| 32. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 27th +5 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 28th +5 |
| 34. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th +10 |
| 35. | 21 | Josh Berry | 37th -2 |
| 36. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 30th +6 |
| 37. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 23rd +14 |
| 38. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 32nd +6 |
| 39. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 33rd +6 |
| 40. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th +23 |
| 41. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 3rd +38 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
