The 2025 season had the potential to kick off the Cup Series year with an upset winner or two. Back to back superspeedways followed by a road course could have generated one of the unusual suspects in victory lane. Look at last year; Atlanta produced Daniel Suarez as the second winner of the season. If Suarez did not win that race, the Trackhouse driver would have been left out of the playoffs. However, this season’s “wild card” races failed to produce an upset winner. William Byron claimed his second straight Daytona 500 while Christopher Bell swept the other two races while leading a grand total of 9 laps. Both drivers would be considered favorites for the Championship Four heading into the season. While there was potential for chaos, ultimately that did not come to be. However, NASCAR has a tendency to churn out the unexpected at the most random times.
Once again, last year can be used at the test case for that sentiment. After the spring Atlanta race, there were a series of winners that were upsets from unexpected tracks. While Harrison Burton definitely turned out to be the biggest shock at Daytona, multiple other winners were churned out from the “normal” tracks. WWT Raceway, Darlington, and Richmond all saw unexpected names find their way to victory lane. Each case did not see the winner fluke their way to victory via fuel strategy or restarts shenanigans to get upfront either. The wins were merit based, despite some dramatic flairs thrown in.
With the lack of upset winners in the first 3 races, it suggests that the Cup Series might see one over the next few races. Starting with Phoenix, the next 6 races on the schedule should see the usual favorites claim victory. However, the ebbs and flows of NASCAR would suggest an upset could be coming down the pipe. After the 3 wild card races failed to produce a surprise winner, maybe the normal tracks can add some spice before the Cup Series heads to the next wild card track (Talladega). That is what this article will preview. Who could be the upset driver to shock the field over the next 6 weeks?
Shriners Children’s 500
Upset Pick: Ty Gibbs
Although his 2025 has not gotten off to the best start, Ty Gibbs should be considered a threat this weekend. While his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate will receive the attention, Gibbs demonstrated last year that he can run upfront at Phoenix. He led 57 laps, all in which came during the start of the race. Where Gibbs has struggled the most in his Cup career has been maintaining top speed throughout a race. Phoenix demonstrated this, as well as spring Bristol. As his Cup career has continued on, the hope is that Gibbs will learn to manage the race better. What better place to demonstrate that growth than a track where he thrived last year. Despite being in top equipment, Gibbs picking up the win would be an upset.
Pennzoil 400
Upset Pick: Noah Gragson
It might seem a bit cliche to pick the Las Vegas native to be the upset winner for the Pennzoil 400. However, Gragson has put together strong runs at his hometown track. Most impressively, Gragson brought home the Stewart-Haas 10 car with a 6th place finish in this race last year. Along with that Top-10, he has collected a couple of Top-20 finishes. Shifting focus from the past to the present, Gragson and Front Row Motorsports have demonstrated speed at the non-superspeedways. Last week at COTA, the 4 car brought speed throughout the weekend. Near the end of the race, Gragson found himself in the Top-5. If that speed can hold true on intermediates, Noah Gragson would be a suitable surprise winner for the Pennzoil 400.
Straight Talk Wireless 400
Upset Pick: Carson Hocevar
Through many of his impressive runs during his Rookie of the Year campaign, one of Carson Hocevar’s best performance came at Homestead. Racing among the playoff drivers, Hocever found himself inside the Top-10 throughout the race. Getting as high as third, the 77 car did not feel out of place in that mixed company. Upon returning to Homestead, Hocevar should be back mixing it up with the top contenders. His aggressive tendencies might draw the ire of his fellow drivers, but it does help bring Spire Motorsports equipment to the front. The big question will be whether Hocevar can make the jump from Top-5 to leading laps. Homestead looks to be the best place in the near future for the young driver to nab his first win.
Cook Out 400
Upset Pick: Shane van Gisbergen
The obvious choice here would be Ryan Preece. Since being recalled up to the Cup Series, Preece’s best track has been Martinsville. However, that feels too easy, especially considering the upgrade in equipment now that he is with RFK Racing. Instead, Shane van Gisbergen is the pick here. Why? As explained thoroughly during the FOX broadcast of The Clash, flat short tracks usually work well for road course ringers. SVG impressed in his Clash performance. Plus, Gisbergen finished 12th in his lone Cup Martinsville start. That finish might have been improved had it not been for Chevy’s race manipulation at the end of the race. In Trackhouse equipment, Shane van Gisbergen will have the ability to run with race winning speed. Maybe spring Martinsville is too early for an oval win, but SVG winning at a non-road course would certainly be a shock.
Goodyear 400
Upset Pick: Justin Haley
Whether you look at the spring or late summer Darlington race, there is good reason to believe that Justin Haley has a chance at Darlington. During throwback weekend, Haley managed to drag a Rick Ware Racing entry to the team’s first Top-10 on a non-superspeedway. Fast forward to the Southern 500, Corey LaJoie in the 7 car finished in the same position Haley did in the spring. Known as a drivers’ track, Darlington suits Justin Haley well. Paired up with a crew chief with a great history of success at Darlington, Haley will be set up beautifully to experience his best success at the track too tough to tame.
Food City 500
Upset Pick: Michael McDowell
Road course ringer winning on an oval part two. Outside of superspeedways, Bristol Motor Speedway is arguably Michael McDowell’s best oval. Since the start of this decade, McDowell has been averaging a 12.2 finish there. During the Gen7 era, that improves to a Top-10. Last year, McDowell scored 11th place finishes in both Bristol races despite very different types of events. With the great tire mystery of 2024 still looming over the track, picking an upset winner boils down to who managed both races well. McDowell fits that bill. Based on how well the 71 team has been able to handle adversity thus far, it would not be unreasonable for McDowell to flash the ability to win a race at one of his best tracks.
