This article is a race finish projection for the COTA race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen COTA Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Austin Cindric
Finished: 28th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-4 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) than they were projected
-11 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-22 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (2 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 3 of 80, 3.75%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 24 of 80, 30.00%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 44 of 80, 55.00%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 2, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 6 of 20, 30.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Kyle Busch
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
Chase Elliott won the inaugural COTA Cup race on the long course, and according to the stats he’ll be the first to win on the short course as well. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 5th -3 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 32nd -27 |
| 6. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th -20 |
| 11. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -22 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th -6 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 19th -4 |
| 16. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th +9 |
| 17. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 11th +6 |
| 18. | 87 | Connor Zilisch | 37th -19 |
| 19. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 22 | Joey Logano | 24th -3 |
| 22. | 38 | Zane Smith | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 8th +19 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 16th +12 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 28th +1 |
| 30. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +15 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18th +13 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 33rd +0 |
| 34. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 43 | Erik Jones | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 22nd +14 |
| 37. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th +11 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.