This article is a race finish projection for the COTA race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen COTA Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Austin Cindric
Finished: 28th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-4 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) than they were projected
-11 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-22 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (2 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 3 of 80, 3.75%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 24 of 80, 30.00%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 44 of 80, 55.00%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 2, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 6 of 20, 30.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Kyle Busch
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 5th -3 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 32nd -27 |
| 6. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th -20 |
| 11. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -22 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th -6 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 19th -4 |
| 16. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th +9 |
| 17. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 11th +6 |
| 18. | 87 | Connor Zilisch | 37th -19 |
| 19. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 22 | Joey Logano | 24th -3 |
| 22. | 38 | Zane Smith | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 8th +19 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 16th +12 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 28th +1 |
| 30. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +15 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18th +13 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 33rd +0 |
| 34. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 43 | Erik Jones | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 22nd +14 |
| 37. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th +11 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
