This article is a race finish projection for the Homestead Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Homestead Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024/25 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Josh Berry
Projected Finish: 20th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chris Buescher 13th & Cody Ware 36th (last))
-13 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 3 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (5 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 8 of 190, 4.21%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 66 of 190, 34.74%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 73 of 190, 47.89%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 5, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 22 of 50, 44.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 3. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 4. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 8. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 11. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 13. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 14. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 15. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 16. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 18. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 19. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 20. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 22. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 24. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 25. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 26. | 7 | Justin Haley | – |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 28. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 30. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 32. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 33. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 34. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 37. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
