This article is a race finish projection for the spring Las Vegas race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Las Vegas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 20th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 10th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-6 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (4 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 6 of 154, 3.90%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 53 of 154, 34.42%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 73 of 154, 47.40%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 4, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 18 of 40, 45.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Alex Bowman
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 2. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 6. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 8. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 11. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 12. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 14. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 17. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 20. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 21. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 22. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 23. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 24. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 25. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 27. | 7 | Justin Haley | – |
| 28. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 30. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 31. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 32. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 33. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 34. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 35. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
