This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Martinsville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Martinsville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 12th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Bubba Wallace 3rd)
-9 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (6 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 9 of 227, 3.96%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 86 of 227, 37.89%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 87 of 227, 38.33%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 6, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 27 of 60, 45.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Cole Custer
Disappointment: A.J. Allmendinger
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 22nd -18 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th +0 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 8th -2 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +5 |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 13th -5 |
| 9. | 41 | Cole Custer | 33rd -24 |
| 10. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 27th -17 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 9th +3 |
| 13. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd -19 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 24th -10 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 17th -1 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 26th -9 |
| 18. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 14th +4 |
| 19. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 34th -15 |
| 20. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 29th -9 |
| 21. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 10th +11 |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 18th +4 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 37th -14 |
| 24. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 19th +5 |
| 25. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 7th +18 |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 12th +14 |
| 27. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 21st +6 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25th +3 |
| 29. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 66 | Casey Mears | 35th -5 |
| 31. | 50 | Burt Myers | 36th -5 |
| 32. | 43 | Erik Jones | 38th -6 |
| 33. | 38 | Zane Smith | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 15th +19 |
| 35. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 23rd +12 |
| 36. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +16 |
| 37. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 31st +6 |
| 38. | 7 | Justin Haley | 28th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
