This article is a race finish projection for the spring Phoenix race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Phoenix Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Small track (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 3rd, Carson Hocevar 13th, Ryan Preece 33rd
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) than they were projected
-16 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (3 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 6 of 117, 5.13%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 40 of 117, 34.19%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 55 of 117, 47.01%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 3, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 13 of 30, 43.33%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th -19 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 6th -4 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 28th -25 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 13th -9 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 36th -30 |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +7 |
| 10. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +9 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 10th +1 |
| 12. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 27th -25 |
| 13. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 19th -6 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 33rd -19 |
| 15. | 21 | Josh Berry | 4th +11 |
| 16. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +8 |
| 17. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 29th -12 |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 22nd -4 |
| 19. | 43 | Erik Jones | 18th +1 |
| 20. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 35th -15 |
| 21. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 37th -16 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 38 | Zane Smith | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 26th -1 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 32nd -6 |
| 27. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +20 |
| 28. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 7 | Justin Haley | 34th -5 |
| 30. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 31st -1 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +10 |
| 32. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 16th +16 |
| 33. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 15th +19 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 14th +21 |
| 36. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +19 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 24th +13 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
No Chase Elliott?
Updated! Thank you for catching that, I accidentally typed the 8 in 11th place instead of the 9.