This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Bristol Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Bristol Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024/25 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 5th

Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Austin Dillon 23rd, J.J. Yeley 38th)
-13 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 6 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 5 drivers finished in the Top 5

Notes from all point race projections this year (8 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 14 of 303, 4.62%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 117 of 303, 38.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 122 of 303, 40.26%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 8, 12.5%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 36 of 80, 45.0%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Michael McDowell
Disappointment: Ross Chastain

According to the numbers and track time this weekend this sight in Victory Lane this weekend will be eerily similar to the last time the Cup Series ran here, with Kyle Larson making another pose. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 5 Kyle Larson 1st +0
2. 11 Denny Hamlin 2nd +0
3. 48 Alex Bowman 37th -34
4. 9 Chase Elliott 15th -11
5. 20 Christopher Bell 8th -3
6. 6 Brad Keselowski 16th -10
7. 12 Ryan Blaney 5th +2
8. 71 Michael McDowell 30th -22
9. 54 Ty Gibbs 3rd +6
10. 17 Chris Buescher 25th -15
11. 24 William Byron 6th +5
12. 23 Bubba Wallace 19th -7
13. 19 Chase Briscoe 4th +9
14. 21 Josh Berry 12th +2
15. 77 Carson Hocevar 11th +4
16. 7 Justin Haley 13th +3
17. 33 Jesse Love 31st -14
18. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22nd -4
19. 22 Joey Logano 24th -5
20. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 21st -1
21. 60 Ryan Preece 20th +1
22. 8 Kyle Busch 14th +8
23. 4 Noah Gragson 23rd +0
24. 41 Cole Custer 29th -5
25. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 38th -13
26. 35 Riley Herbst 28th -2
27. 45 Tyler Reddick 18th +9
28. 3 Austin Dillon 10th +18
29. 2 Austin Cindric 17th +12
30. 1 Ross Chastain 7th +23
31. 34 Todd Gilliland 35th -4
32. 99 Daniel Suarez 33rd -1
33. 10 Ty Dillon 32nd +1
34. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 9th +25
35. 66 Josh Bilicki 39th -4
36. 43 Erik Jones 26th +10
37. 38 Zane Smith 27th +10
38. 01 Corey LaJoie 34th +4
39. 51 Cody Ware 36th +3

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.