This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Bristol Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Bristol Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024/25 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the first race this year where the projected driver won
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Austin Dillon 23rd, J.J. Yeley 38th)
-13 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 6 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 5 drivers finished in the Top 5
Notes from all point race projections this year (8 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 14 of 303, 4.62%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 117 of 303, 38.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 122 of 303, 40.26%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 8, 12.5%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 36 of 80, 45.0%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Michael McDowell
Disappointment: Ross Chastain
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 37th -34 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -11 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 8th -3 |
| 6. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 16th -10 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 30th -22 |
| 9. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +6 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 25th -15 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 21 | Josh Berry | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 7 | Justin Haley | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 33 | Jesse Love | 31st -14 |
| 18. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22nd -4 |
| 19. | 22 | Joey Logano | 24th -5 |
| 20. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 21st -1 |
| 21. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 20th +1 |
| 22. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 14th +8 |
| 23. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 23rd +0 |
| 24. | 41 | Cole Custer | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 38th -13 |
| 26. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 28th -2 |
| 27. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 10th +18 |
| 29. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +23 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 32nd +1 |
| 34. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 9th +25 |
| 35. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 39th -4 |
| 36. | 43 | Erik Jones | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 38 | Zane Smith | 27th +10 |
| 38. | 01 | Corey LaJoie | 34th +4 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 36th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
