Wednesday, May 21, 2025
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Darlington

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Darlington

This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Darlington Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st

Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the first race this year where the projected driver won
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st, Bubba Wallace 3rd, Kyle Larson 5th)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8

Notes from all point race projections this year (7 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 12 of 265, 4.53%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 104 of 265, 39.25%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 102 of 265, 38.49%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 7, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 33 of 70, 47.14%

Notable results this week

Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez

William Byron won the 2023 Darlington throwback race with a Jeff Gordon throwback, now the stats say he’ll win in another throwback scheme to Jeff Gordon this weekend. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images
Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 24 William Byron 2nd -1
2. 45 Tyler Reddick 4th -2
3. 23 Bubba Wallace 21st -18
4. 21 Josh Berry 36th -32
5. 11 Denny Hamlin 1st +4
6. 60 Ryan Preece 26th -20
7. 6 Brad Keselowski 33rd -26
8. 5 Kyle Larson 37th -29
9. 2 Austin Cindric 11th -2
10. 22 Joey Logano 13th -3
11. 12 Ryan Blaney 5th +6
12. 19 Chase Briscoe 28th -16
13. 77 Carson Hocevar 32nd -19
14. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 18th -4
15. 54 Ty Gibbs 9th +6
16. 20 Christopher Bell 3rd +13
17. 17 Chris Buescher 6th +11
18. 9 Chase Elliott 8th +10
19. 48 Alex Bowman 35th -16
20. 7 Justin Haley 24th -4
21. 8 Kyle Busch 10th +11
22. 1 Ross Chastain 7th +15
23. 3 Austin Dillon 23rd +0
24. 71 Michael McDowell 29th -5
25. 4 Noah Gragson 19th +6
26. 38 Zane Smith 12th +14
27. 34 Todd Gilliland 14th +13
28. 43 Erik Jones 17th +11
29. 99 Daniel Suarez 15th +14
30. 41 Cole Custer 22nd +8
31. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25th +6
32. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 30th +2
33. 35 Riley Herbst 34th -1
34. 10 Ty Dillon 16th +18
35. 33 Austin Hill 31st +4
36. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 20th +16
37. 51 Cody Ware 27th +10
38. 44 J.J. Yeley 38th +0

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest


0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: Ryan Sieg & Connor Zilisch, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Daniel Hemric

More From This Author

Recent Comments

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x

Pit Pass Network is Hiring!

Want to join our team? Click the button below to find the application!
Apply Now
close-link