This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Darlington Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the first race this year where the projected driver won
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st, Bubba Wallace 3rd, Kyle Larson 5th)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (7 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 12 of 265, 4.53%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 104 of 265, 39.25%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 102 of 265, 38.49%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 7, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 33 of 70, 47.14%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 3. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 4. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 6. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 11. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 14. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 16. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 18. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 20. | 7 | Justin Haley | – |
| 21. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 22. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 24. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 25. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 26. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 27. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 28. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 29. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 30. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 36. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
