This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Talladega Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Talladega Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-drafting tracks weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Denny Hamlin 2nd, Noah Gragson 23rd)
-7 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (9 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 342, 4.97%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 138 of 342, 40.35%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 135 of 342, 39.47%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 9, 22.22%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 41 of 90, 45.56%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Joey Logano

Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 37th -36 |
2. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd -1 |
3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th -2 |
4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +2 |
5. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 27th -22 |
6. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 1st +5 |
7. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 12th -5 |
8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 35th -27 |
9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 14th -5 |
10. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +3 |
11. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 21st -10 |
12. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 16th -4 |
13. | 43 | Erik Jones | 18th -5 |
14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +6 |
15. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 11th +4 |
16. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 15th +1 |
17. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 6th +11 |
18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 20th -2 |
19. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 34th -15 |
20. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 36th -16 |
21. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 22nd -1 |
22. | 62 | Anthony Alfredo | 28th -6 |
23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 10th +13 |
24. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 4th +20 |
25. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 38th -13 |
26. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 30th -4 |
27. | 22 | Joey Logano | 39th -12 |
28. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 9th +19 |
29. | 7 | Justin Haley | 25th +4 |
30. | 41 | Cole Custer | 13th +17 |
31. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 29th +2 |
32. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 23rd +9 |
33. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th +7 |
34. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 17th +17 |
35. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 33rd +2 |
36. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 24th +12 |
37. | 38 | Zane Smith | 19th +18 |
38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +7 |
39. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 32nd +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.