Wednesday, May 14, 2025
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Talladega Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Talladega Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-drafting tracks weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st

Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Denny Hamlin 2nd, Noah Gragson 23rd)
-7 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15

Notes from all point race projections this year (9 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 342, 4.97%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 138 of 342, 40.35%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 135 of 342, 39.47%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 9, 22.22%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 41 of 90, 45.56%

Notable results this week

Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Joey Logano

According to the numbers Ryan Blaney will be on the front stretch celebrating another Talladega win after the race this weekend. Photo by Meg Oliphant — Getty Images
Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 12 Ryan Blaney 37th -36
2. 24 William Byron 3rd -1
3. 9 Chase Elliott 5th -2
4. 5 Kyle Larson 2nd +2
5. 8 Kyle Busch 27th -22
6. 2 Austin Cindric 1st +5
7. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 12th -5
8. 20 Christopher Bell 35th -27
9. 45 Tyler Reddick 14th -5
10. 48 Alex Bowman 7th +3
11. 11 Denny Hamlin 21st -10
12. 34 Todd Gilliland 16th -4
13. 43 Erik Jones 18th -5
14. 23 Bubba Wallace 8th +6
15. 71 Michael McDowell 11th +4
16. 19 Chase Briscoe 15th +1
17. 77 Carson Hocevar 6th +11
18. 1 Ross Chastain 20th -2
19. 17 Chris Buescher 34th -15
20. 6 Brad Keselowski 36th -16
21. 35 Riley Herbst 22nd -1
22. 62 Anthony Alfredo 28th -6
23. 3 Austin Dillon 10th +13
24. 4 Noah Gragson 4th +20
25. 60 Ryan Preece 38th -13
26. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 30th -4
27. 22 Joey Logano 39th -12
28. 99 Daniel Suarez 9th +19
29. 7 Justin Haley 25th +4
30. 41 Cole Custer 13th +17
31. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 29th +2
32. 10 Ty Dillon 23rd +9
33. 21 Josh Berry 26th +7
34. 54 Ty Gibbs 17th +17
35. 78 B.J. McLeod 33rd +2
36. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 24th +12
37. 38 Zane Smith 19th +18
38. 51 Cody Ware 31st +7
39. 44 J.J. Yeley 32nd +7

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: Ryan Sieg & Connor Zilisch, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Daniel Hemric

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