This article is a race finish projection for the Cup All-Star Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen All-Star Race Avg. Finish, and 2025 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st & Zane Smith 16th)
-8 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 20 of 457, 4.38%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 178 of 457, 38.95%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 197 of 457, 43.11%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 12, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 53 of 120, 44.17%
Notable results this week
Winner: Joey Logano
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Note: *Denotes driver from Open race. The Top 3 Open drivers in the projection are in the All-Star Race projection below, this will be switched before the All-Star Race if other drivers make it instead.
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 22 | Joey Logano | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 16th -12 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +0 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 22nd -14 |
| 9. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 12th -3 |
| 10. | 77 | *Carson Hocevar | 11th -1 |
| 11. | 21 | Josh Berry | 17th -6 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 9th +3 |
| 13. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 21st -8 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +6 |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 23rd -7 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 4th +13 |
| 18. | 51 | Harrison Burton | 20th -2 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th +10 |
| 21. | 42 | *John Hunter Nemechek | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 15th +7 |
| 23. | 4 | *Noah Gragson | 13th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
