This article is a race finish projection for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Charlotte Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Joey Logano
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 2nd

Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 5th & William Byron 6th)
-5 of the 23 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 23 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-Only 5 of the 23 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12

Notes from all point race projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 20 of 457, 4.38%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 178 of 457, 38.95%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 197 of 457, 43.11%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 12, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 53 of 120, 44.17%

Notable results this week

Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Ryan Preece

Yesterday William Byron picked up his first Charlotte win, and now his speed and stats say he sweeps this weekend and wins the Coca-Cola 600 tonight. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 24 William Byron 2nd -1
2. 45 Tyler Reddick 26th -24
3. 5 Kyle Larson 37th -34
4. 48 Alex Bowman 29th -25
5. 54 Ty Gibbs 24th -19
6. 21 Josh Berry 12th -6
7. 20 Christopher Bell 8th -1
8. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 4th +4
9. 11 Denny Hamlin 16th -7
10. 17 Chris Buescher 22nd -12
11. 9 Chase Elliott 6th +5
12. 7 Justin Haley 30th -18
13. 2 Austin Cindric 31st -18
14. 19 Chase Briscoe 3rd +11
15. 22 Joey Logano 17th -2
16. 23 Bubba Wallace 35th -19
17. 12 Ryan Blaney 38th -21
18. 8 Kyle Busch 15th +3
19. 43 Erik Jones 13th +6
20. 99 Daniel Suarez 36th -16
21. 71 Michael McDowell 7th +14
22. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 11th +11
23. 77 Carson Hocevar 34th -11
24. 38 Zane Smith 39th -15
25. 4 Noah Gragson 10th +15
26. 84 Jimmie Johnson 40th -14
27. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 27th +0
28. 1 Ross Chastain 1st +27
29. 6 Brad Keselowski 5th +24
30. 3 Austin Dillon 20th +10
31. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 14th +17
32. 60 Ryan Preece 9th +23
33. 87 Connor Zilisch 23rd +10
34. 34 Todd Gilliland 18th +16
35. 44 Derek Kraus 32nd +3
36. 35 Riley Herbst 28th +8
37. 41 Cole Custer 21st +16
38. 10 Ty Dillon 19th +19
39. 51 Cody Ware 25th +14
40. 66 Josh Bilicki 33rd +7

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.