This article is a race finish projection for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Charlotte Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Joey Logano
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 5th & William Byron 6th)
-5 of the 23 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 23 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-Only 5 of the 23 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 20 of 457, 4.38%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 178 of 457, 38.95%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 197 of 457, 43.11%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 12, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 53 of 120, 44.17%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 26th -24 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 37th -34 |
| 4. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 29th -25 |
| 5. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 24th -19 |
| 6. | 21 | Josh Berry | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 8th -1 |
| 8. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 4th +4 |
| 9. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 16th -7 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 22nd -12 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 7 | Justin Haley | 30th -18 |
| 13. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 31st -18 |
| 14. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 3rd +11 |
| 15. | 22 | Joey Logano | 17th -2 |
| 16. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 35th -19 |
| 17. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 38th -21 |
| 18. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 43 | Erik Jones | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 7th +14 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 11th +11 |
| 23. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 34th -11 |
| 24. | 38 | Zane Smith | 39th -15 |
| 25. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 10th +15 |
| 26. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 40th -14 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 27th +0 |
| 28. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 1st +27 |
| 29. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 5th +24 |
| 30. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 14th +17 |
| 32. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 9th +23 |
| 33. | 87 | Connor Zilisch | 23rd +10 |
| 34. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 18th +16 |
| 35. | 44 | Derek Kraus | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 28th +8 |
| 37. | 41 | Cole Custer | 21st +16 |
| 38. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 19th +19 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 25th +14 |
| 40. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 33rd +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
