This article is a race finish projection for the Kansas Spring Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Kansas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 21st
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 12th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Jesse Love 31st)
-7 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-27 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 1 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (11 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 18 of 419, 4.30%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 162 of 419, 38.66%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 178 of 419, 42.48%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 11, 18.18%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 47 of 110, 42.73%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Josh Berry
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 17th -14 |
| 4. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 8th -4 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 33rd -25 |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 11th -2 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 9th +1 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 36th -24 |
| 13. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 34th -21 |
| 14. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 28th -14 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 38 | Zane Smith | 16th +0 |
| 17. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 23rd -6 |
| 18. | 7 | Justin Haley | 31st -13 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 22nd -3 |
| 20. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 21st -1 |
| 21. | 43 | Erik Jones | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +18 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19th +4 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 37th -12 |
| 26. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 14th +12 |
| 27. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 38th -11 |
| 28. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 7th +21 |
| 29. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 67 | Corey Heim | 13th +17 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 12th +19 |
| 32. | 21 | Josh Berry | 6th +26 |
| 33. | 33 | Jesse Love | 29th +4 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 20th +16 |
| 37. | 41 | Cole Custer | 25th +12 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
