This article is a race finish projection for the Kansas Spring Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Kansas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 21st
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 12th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Jesse Love 31st)
-7 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-27 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 1 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11

Notes from all point race projections this year (11 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 18 of 419, 4.30%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 162 of 419, 38.66%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 178 of 419, 42.48%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 11, 18.18%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 47 of 110, 42.73%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Josh Berry

Kyle Larson finally got his pedal car he’s always wanted by winning the Pole yesterday. Today the numbers and his speed say he’ll get the race winners trophy to take home as well. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 5 Kyle Larson 1st +0
2. 24 William Byron 24th -22
3. 45 Tyler Reddick 17th -14
4. 17 Chris Buescher 8th -4
5. 12 Ryan Blaney 3rd +2
6. 20 Christopher Bell 2nd +4
7. 48 Alex Bowman 5th +2
8. 23 Bubba Wallace 33rd -25
9. 2 Austin Cindric 11th -2
10. 22 Joey Logano 9th +1
11. 9 Chase Elliott 15th -4
12. 11 Denny Hamlin 36th -24
13. 99 Daniel Suarez 34th -21
14. 54 Ty Gibbs 28th -14
15. 1 Ross Chastain 18th -3
16. 38 Zane Smith 16th +0
17. 71 Michael McDowell 23rd -6
18. 7 Justin Haley 31st -13
19. 3 Austin Dillon 22nd -3
20. 8 Kyle Busch 21st -1
21. 43 Erik Jones 32nd -11
22. 19 Chase Briscoe 4th +18
23. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19th +4
24. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 10th +14
25. 6 Brad Keselowski 37th -12
26. 4 Noah Gragson 14th +12
27. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 38th -11
28. 60 Ryan Preece 7th +21
29. 77 Carson Hocevar 26th +3
30. 67 Corey Heim 13th +17
31. 34 Todd Gilliland 12th +19
32. 21 Josh Berry 6th +26
33. 33 Jesse Love 29th +4
34. 10 Ty Dillon 35th -1
35. 35 Riley Herbst 27th +8
36. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 20th +16
37. 41 Cole Custer 25th +12
38. 51 Cody Ware 30th +8

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.