This article is a race finish projection for the Texas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Texas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 37th
Last weeks winner: Austin Cindric
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-8 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (10 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 381, 4.46%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 155 of 381, 40.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 151 of 381, 39.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 10, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 46 of 100, 46.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Christopher Bell
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 21st -20 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 13th -11 |
| 3. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -15 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 38th -34 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 33rd -28 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 25th -17 |
| 9. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 26th -17 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 23rd -13 |
| 11. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 24th -13 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +11 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 16th -3 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 43 | Erik Jones | 5th +10 |
| 16. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +13 |
| 17. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 27th -10 |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -18 |
| 19. | 7 | Justin Haley | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 28th -8 |
| 21. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 2nd +19 |
| 22. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 34th -12 |
| 23. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd -8 |
| 25. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 29th -4 |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 38 | Zane Smith | 17th +10 |
| 28. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 14th +14 |
| 29. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th +9 |
| 30. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 62 | Jesse Love | 31st +0 |
| 32. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 37th -5 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 6th +27 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 11th +15 |
| 37. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 8th +29 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
