This article is a race finish projection for the Texas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Texas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 37th
Last weeks winner: Austin Cindric
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-8 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (10 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 381, 4.46%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 155 of 381, 40.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 151 of 381, 39.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 10, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 46 of 100, 46.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Christopher Bell
According to the stats and weekend speed Tyler Reddick will get his next oval Cup win at the place he got his first oval win, this weekend at Texas. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 21st -20 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 13th -11 |
| 3. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -15 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 38th -34 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 33rd -28 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 25th -17 |
| 9. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 26th -17 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 23rd -13 |
| 11. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 24th -13 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +11 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 16th -3 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 43 | Erik Jones | 5th +10 |
| 16. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +13 |
| 17. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 27th -10 |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -18 |
| 19. | 7 | Justin Haley | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 28th -8 |
| 21. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 2nd +19 |
| 22. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 34th -12 |
| 23. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd -8 |
| 25. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 29th -4 |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 38 | Zane Smith | 17th +10 |
| 28. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 14th +14 |
| 29. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th +9 |
| 30. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 62 | Jesse Love | 31st +0 |
| 32. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 37th -5 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 6th +27 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 11th +15 |
| 37. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 8th +29 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.