Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch: Michigan

Summertime is officially here as the NASCAR season storms ahead. This weekend, the Cup and Craftsman Truck Series will head to Michigan International Speedway for a couple of high octane races. The 2-mile track offers two different styles of racing between the two series. For the Truck Series, Michigan almost works as a drafting style track. Drivers stay in the throttle for most of a lap around the track. Meanwhile, the Cup Series should play into the traditional role of an intermediate track. High speeds on the straightaways with braking into the long turns. Michigan has been a quality track over the years, even with the Gen7 car. Could it be the source of some wild card winners though? Will those potential Michigan winners be featured in this week’s Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch?

As the schedule draws closer to the end of the regular season, the playoff picture continues to become both clearer and muddied. On the Cup Series side, 3 of the past 4 points paying races have seen new winners. However, each of those winners were already sitting inside the Top-16 in the standings. The only driver that has pushed the cutline up is Josh Berry, who sits 20th. The current cutline battle is tight, with Kyle Busch holding a slim 2 point advantage over Ryan Preece. That said, the new winners along with strong runs from drivers below the cutline certainly seem to indicate that the cutline will move up. For the Truck Series, last week’s winner, Rajah Caruth, pushed the cutline battle ahead 26 points. If there is another winner from the below the cutline, drivers in the Top-10will feel the must-win nature of this format.

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Chris Buescher

It has been a tumultuous couple of weeks for Chris Buescher. After picking up a Top-10 at Kansas, NASCAR penalized the 17 team by docking them 60 points and suspending crew chief Scott Graves for 2 races. Although Grave served his 2 race suspension, an appeal of the original penalty negated 30 of the 60 points taken from Buescher. That helped erase the artificial cutline deficit he faced after the Coca-Cola 600. Now, Buescher sits 8 points to the good with a driver between him and the cutline. However, the 17 team does not feel sanguine about their current spot. After being burned by the numerous winners at the end of the regular season last year, the team feels a win is the only safety to their playoff chances.

If a win is what Chris Buescher is needing, then there are few tracks better for that than Michigan. Since the Gen7 era, Buescher has scored the 4th most points at the track. His average finish of 7.67 ranks second among drivers, which includes his 2023 win. Last year, Buescher finished 6th after being caught up in a wreck and having to fix damage to the car. It would be mildly surprising if this race had not been circled on the calendar for this team prior to the season. RFK Racing as a whole have been strong at Michigan, which should only further emphasize the opportunity this race represents. With his improvement in qualifying the past few races as well, be on the lookout for a strong run from Chris Buescher.

Riley Herbst

Heading into the season, there were few fans who had high expectations for Riley Herbst. While he was joining (arguably) the best second tier team in the Cup Series, Herbst did little to impress during his Xfinity Series tenure. However, he got off to a solid start with 3 straight finishes of 17th. Since then though, it has been a rough rookie campaign. The latest disappointment to feature this year was missing out on the in-season tournament. With the 32-driver field set after Nashville, Herbst missed the mark. Despite the struggles though, it appears that Herbst will remain with the team for at least one more season.

According to Jordan Bianchi, Riley Herbst’s contract covers him for next season. Although Corey Heim looks ready for Cup, the Truck Series driver will not be joining 23XI Racing next year (assuming charters are still with the organization). That said, Herbst should feel his seat warming as the season progresses. Even if he has a contract for next year, he seemingly is a placeholder for Heim, who should be in a Cup seat in 2026. What Herbst needs to do for the remainder of the season is prove that he belongs in the Cup Series. Michigan could be the start of that. 23XI Racing has run well at Michigan as a 2-car operation, with Tyler Reddick winning last year’s race and Bubba Wallace qualifying on pole in 2022. Herbst needs a great run. It would be the perfect time for him to pick up his first Top-10 of the season.

Alex Bowman

There are bad streaks and then there is what is happening to Alex Bowman. After finishing second at Homestead and sitting third in points, Bowman has been slammed harshly with poor results. Over the past 8 races, Bowman has more finishes in the 30s (4) than Top-10s (2). The results are not an issue of speed, as the 48 has been competitive during most of these races at certain points. However, bad luck and driver error have completely undermined this team. Wrecks, mechanical failures, and issues of wrong place at the wrong time have plagued Bowman. After holding strong at third in points, Bowman now sits 12th.

Although Alex Bowman is still 45 points above the cutline, he only has a 2 driver buffer. If this string of bad finishes continues, that 45 point cushion and 2 driver buffer can vanish. Unfortunately for the 48 team, Michigan does not appear to be the track set to break this pattern. In 10 starts with Hendrick Motorsports at Michigan, Bowman has only collected 3 Top-10s. Only once has he finished better than 10th, which was a 9th place finish in 2022. Usually intermediates have been a strength of Bowman, but Michigan has been an enigma. During the Gen7 era, even the qualifying has gone poorly at this track. Of course, you cannot simply rule out Alex Bowman from having a good run. However, the odds are not stacking up in his favor.

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Rajah Caruth

Fresh off a win at Nashville Superspeedway, Rajah Caruth will look to continue the momentum in Michigan. It has been a bit of a middling season for Caruth until his win. Through the first 11 races, Caruth had solid numbers on paper. However, his season was lacking any definitive moments that demonstrated progression from the year prior. Other than Bristol, Caruth struggled to led laps. If you take away the 85 laps he led at the short track, the Spire Motorsports prospect had only led 40 laps. That changed at Nashville, where Caruth grabbed the lead during the final stage and failed to relinquish it.

What should you expect from Rajah Caruth this weekend? It is difficult to tell based on how this season has gone. On the optimistic side, Caruth has picked up Top-10s at Las Vegas, Texas, and Charlotte. At Las Vegas and Texas, Caruth managed to earn stage points. Yet, his runs at Homestead (22nd) and Kansas (21) lends the mind to a pessimistic view point. What could be the tiebreaker is the Nashville win. Not only did he pick up the win, but he managed to hold off the two hottest drivers in the Truck Series to do so. If that win can bolster Caruth’s performance moving forward, then Michigan should fall into the optimistic camp of expectations.

Grant Enfinger

As long as the 9 truck remains out of any incidents, Grant Enfinger will bring it home with a solid finish. This season has been another testament to the consistency that Enfinger brings to the Truck Series. Through the first 12 races of the season, Enfinger only has one finish outside the Top-10 with his truck on the lead lap. DNFs at Martisnville and Texas are the only blemishes on Enfinger’s season thus far. What he is missing though is a win. After racking up 2 wins last season, the 9 truck has been far removed from any winning conversations this year.

Grant Enfinger could have an edge over his competition though. Not only is Enfinger only 1 of 9 drivers who competed the last time the Truck Series was a Michigan, but he ranks second in starts at the track. Only Matt Crafton has more Michigan starts than Enfinger who are in the field. That experience should be an advantage for Enfinger. Maybe not in terms of raw speed or handling of the truck, but an understanding of how the truck will fade as the race wears on. In 5 starts at Michigan, Enfinger has picked up a Top-10 in 4 of them. Can he make it 5 for 6 this weekend? Enfinger will certainly be one to watch.

Tyler Ankrum

Another driver who competed in the last Craftsman Truck Series race at Michigan was Tyler Ankrum. In that race (his second Michigan start), Ankrum pulled out a Top-5. That experience could pay off dividends for the young driver. Yes, Corey Heim will be the favorite as he will likely continue his streak of leading a lap in every race this season. However, the interesting battles could be within the Top-5. Also, Ankrum has demonstrated that ability to beat Corey Heim this year. Ankrum picked up his first win since 2019 at Rockingham.

Tyler Ankrum is looking to have a multi-win season for the first time in his career. What should be a promising sign for the 18-truck driver is how well he has run on intermediates this season. Between Las Vegas, Homestead, Texas, and Charlotte, Ankrum has averaged almost 35 points per race. This has largely helped establish him within the Top-5 of points. Despite his good showings, it is difficult to take Ankrum as a serious threat in the broader Truck Series picture. This is no offense being shown to Ankrum, but it is difficult to see the 18 truck dethrone Hiem or either Front Row driver this year. However, great performances could do wonders to shift that narrative. Especially since Ankrum has a win in the bank, his team could make aggressive decisions to grab the second win of the year.

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