This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Summer Atlanta Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Atlanta Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-drafting tracks weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 32nd
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 17th
Additional notes from last race:
-5 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 2nd, Chase Elliott 5th, Kyle Busch 20th, Cole Custer 22nd, Ross Chastain 26th)
-For the 7th week in a row (including All-Star Race) at least one driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-9 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 9 drivers finished in the Top 9
Notes from all point race projections this year (17 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 32 of 646, 4.95%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 258 of 646, 39.94%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 268 of 646, 41.49%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 17, 23.53%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 77 of 170, 45.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Austin Cindric
One to Watch: Kyle Busch
Disappointment: Corey LaJoie
The last drafting track saw Austin Cindric wind up in Victory Lane. This week the stats say he will wind up there again for his 2nd win of the 2025 season. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 38th -37 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 40th -37 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 37th -33 |
| 5. | 22 | Joey Logano | 36th -31 |
| 6. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 34th -28 |
| 7. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th -3 |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 21st -13 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 33rd -24 |
| 10. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th +6 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 22nd -11 |
| 12. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 18th -6 |
| 13. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 17th -4 |
| 14. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 6th +8 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 3rd +12 |
| 16. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 30th -14 |
| 17. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 31st -14 |
| 18. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 35th -17 |
| 19. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 27th -8 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 5th +15 |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 12th +9 |
| 22. | 7 | Justin Haley | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th -3 |
| 24. | 87 | Connor Zilisch | 11th +13 |
| 25. | 66 | David Starr | 29th -4 |
| 26. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 28th -2 |
| 27. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th +18 |
| 28. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 14th +14 |
| 29. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 15th +14 |
| 30. | 38 | Zane Smith | 7th +23 |
| 31. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +29 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 20th +12 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 25th +8 |
| 34. | 01 | Corey LaJoie | 39th -5 |
| 35. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 8th +28 |
| 37. | 41 | Cole Custer | 19th +18 |
| 38. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 24th +14 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 13th +26 |
| 40. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 16th +24 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.