This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Mexico Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on 2024/25 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ty Gibbs
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chris Buescher 2nd, Daniel Suarez 14th)
-For the 5th week in a row (including All-Star Race) at least one driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-9 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 6 drivers finished in the Top 6
Notes from all point race projections this year (15 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 23 of 572, 4.02%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 223 of 572, 38.99%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 246 of 572, 43.01%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 15, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 67 of 150, 44.67%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Todd Gilliland
Disappointment: John Hunter Nemechek
The stats and his speed this weekend say that SVG welcomes Mexico to the NASCAR Cup schedule the same way he welcomed Chicago… With a win. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 36th -33 |
| 4. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd -18 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 16th -11 |
| 6. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 21st -13 |
| 9. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 15th -6 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 11th -1 |
| 11. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th -9 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 37th -25 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 24 | William Byron | 9th +8 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 19th -1 |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 4th +15 |
| 20. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12th +8 |
| 21. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 7th +14 |
| 22. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 34th -12 |
| 23. | 38 | Zane Smith | 35th -12 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th -1 |
| 26. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 25th +1 |
| 27. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 24th +4 |
| 29. | 43 | Erik Jones | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 30th +0 |
| 31. | 11 | Ryan Truex | 23rd +8 |
| 32. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 32nd +0 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27th +6 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 6th +29 |
| 36. | 41 | Cole Custer | 8th +28 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.