This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Michigan Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Michigan Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024 Big track (2+ miles, non-drafting, non-road course) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 9th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-For the 4th week in a row (including All-Star Race) at least one driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-17 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished in the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (14 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 21 of 536, 3.92%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 203 of 536, 37.87%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 235 of 536, 43.84%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 14, 21.43%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 62 of 140, 44.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ty Gibbs
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Josh Berry
With Ty Gibbs talent you have to think he’ll win eventually. Well, with his speed this weekend and great Michigan stats he is projected to get that first win this weekend. Photo by Mike Mulholland — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 13th -9 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 28th -21 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 32nd -24 |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 29th -20 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -5 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th +3 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 43 | Erik Jones | 11th +5 |
| 17. | 38 | Zane Smith | 7th +10 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 31st -13 |
| 19. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 6th +13 |
| 20. | 22 | Joey Logano | 22nd -2 |
| 21. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 27th -5 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th +4 |
| 24. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 18th +6 |
| 25. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 9th +16 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +6 |
| 27. | 41 | Cole Custer | 35th -8 |
| 28. | 21 | Josh Berry | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 24th +5 |
| 30. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17th +15 |
| 33. | 7 | Justin Haley | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 30th +4 |
| 35. | 51 | Cody Ware | 26th +9 |
| 36. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 33rd +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.