This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Nashville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Nashville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate track (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Ross Chastain
Projected Finish: 28th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (John Hunter Nemechek 27th)
-Only 8 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-27 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the 40 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8

Notes from all point race projections this year (13 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 21 of 497, 4.23%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 186 of 497, 37.42%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 224 of 497, 45.07%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 13, 23.08%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 56 of 130, 43.08%

Notable results this week

Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ryan Blaney
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland

Tyler Reddick’s ride looks fast and is fast this weekend. Combine this with his stats and it all points to a victory for him and the 45 team at Nashville. Image credit: Griffin Fuller — PPN

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 45 Tyler Reddick 9th -8
2. 12 Ryan Blaney 1st +1
3. 1 Ross Chastain 11th -8
4. 24 William Byron 5th -1
5. 11 Denny Hamlin 3rd +2
6. 9 Chase Elliott 15th -9
7. 22 Joey Logano 4th +3
8. 20 Christopher Bell 10th -2
9. 17 Chris Buescher 14th -5
10. 54 Ty Gibbs 31st -21
11. 23 Bubba Wallace 6th +5
12. 60 Ryan Preece 28th -16
13. 19 Chase Briscoe 17th -4
14. 5 Kyle Larson 8th +6
15. 6 Brad Keselowski 23rd -8
16. 2 Austin Cindric 18th -2
17. 43 Erik Jones 7th +10
18. 77 Carson Hocevar 2nd +16
19. 48 Alex Bowman 36th -17
20. 99 Daniel Suarez 16th +4
21. 21 Josh Berry 30th -9
22. 71 Michael McDowell 21st +1
23. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 20th +3
24. 8 Kyle Busch 12th +12
25. 38 Zane Smith 13th +12
26. 3 Austin Dillon 29th -3
27. 7 Justin Haley 32nd -5
28. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 39th -11
29. 67 Corey Heim 37th -8
30. 4 Noah Gragson 38th -8
31. 88 Shane Van Gisbergen 25th +6
32. 34 Todd Gilliland 22nd +10
33. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 27th +6
34. 10 Ty Dillon 26th +8
35. 41 Cole Custer 19th +16
36. 35 Riley Herbst 24th +12
37. 51 Cody Ware 33rd +4
38. 44 J.J. Yeley 34th +4
39. 66 Chad Finchum 35th +4

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.