This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Pocono Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Pocono Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2024/25 Big track (2+ miles, non-drafting, non-road course) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 1st, Ryan Blaney 14th, Noah Gragson 30th, Katherine Legge 32nd)
-For the 6th week in a row (including All-Star Race) at least one driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (16 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 27 of 609, 4.43%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 239 of 609, 39.24%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 259 of 609, 42.53%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 16, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 71 of 160, 44.38%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Erik Jones
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
Pocono and 2025 have a lot in common when it comes to Tyler Reddick, 0 wins. However, the stats and his speed this weekend say that 0 changes this weekend. Photo by Rich Graessle — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 32nd -31 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 9th -6 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +0 |
| 6. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 43 | Erik Jones | 13th -5 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th -8 |
| 10. | 24 | William Byron | 27th -17 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 15th -3 |
| 13. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 14th -1 |
| 14. | 22 | Joey Logano | 16th -2 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 11th +5 |
| 17. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +16 |
| 18. | 38 | Zane Smith | 25th -7 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th -9 |
| 22. | 41 | Cole Custer | 22nd +0 |
| 23. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 21 | Josh Berry | 12th +12 |
| 25. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 26th +0 |
| 27. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 8th +20 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 6th +23 |
| 30. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 35th -5 |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 37th -6 |
| 32. | 44 | Brennan Poole | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 7 | Justin Haley | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 28th +8 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 29th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.