Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch: Dover

What a change of pace this weekend will be. Outside of the obvious transition from road course to oval, Dover Motor Speedway is an entirely different style than anything the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series has faced recently. Nashville would arguably be the closest style of track to Dover, especially considering both are concrete. Since Nashville though, both series have raced on road/street courses, long intermediates, and a superspeedway. Now, brakes will be tested and the toughest Turn 2 in the business will greet these drivers. For those who are tired of the Shane van Gisbergen hype, this is your weekend to rejoice. Unless he solves the Monster Mile in his first trip there (in the Cup Series). With that said, time to take a look at this week’s Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch for Dover.

The summer is starting to wane a bit. The calendar sits in mid-July as the NASCAR schedule draws closer to the playoffs. After a wave of Shane van Gisbergen domination in recent weeks, the cutline for both series has remained relatively unchanged. Will this calm continue though? On the Cup Series side, SVG is the only repeat winner since Larson picked up his third win at Kansas. Between Talladega through Atlanta, 9 different drivers visited victory lane. With Dover this weekend, the likelihood of a new winner seems low. If it will be a new winner, the odds would lean toward one of the drivers already sitting above the cutline. However, stranger things have happened. All you have to do is look at last year for proof of that sentiment.

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Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott has been on a bit of a heater as of late. After spending much of the 2025 season somewhat coasting on consistency, Elliott recently has been spending more time inside the Top-5. The 9 car has finished inside the Top-5 in 4 of the past 5 races. The lone finish outside the Top-5 was a 16th place result at Chicago due to damage suffered early in the race. While Elliott has failed to led any laps outside of Atlanta, seeing the 9 car running upfront is a promising sign. Inarguably, Elliott has been the best Hendrick driver during the summer.

Shifting focus ahead to this weekend, Chase Elliott should be an early favorite. Dover has been one of Elliott’s best tracks. Despite 2 DNFs on the ledger, Elliott averages a 9.5 finish with 2 wins and a 71.4% Top-10 rate. If you take out the two DNFs, Elliott’s average running at the finish result is a strong 4.7. Hendrick Motorsports overall finds great speed at Dover, but Elliott is on another level. Barring any setbacks outside of his control, it is difficult to imagine a bad finish for Elliott. As long as the engine stays running and others avoid collecting him in any wrecks, Chase Elliott could pick up his second win of the season this weekend.

Ty Dillon

Can Ty Dillon keep the magic alive? After surviving the first 3 rounds of the In-Season Tournament, Dillon faces off against John Hunter Nemechek in the Final Four. Arguably his weakest opponent to date, there is a legitimate shot that Dillon can outrace Nemechek for a spot in the finals. Over the past 3 races, the 10 team has finished inside the Top-20. That is the first time this season that Dillon has strung 3 consecutive Top-20s. With the $1 million to chase, this team is stepping up at the right time.

While there are not a lot of highlights for Ty Dillon’s Cup career, one of the early ones did happen at Dover. In his second start at the track, Dillon led 27 laps for Germain Racing in the GEICO 13 car. Outside a single lap led in 2019, that is the only time Dillon has found the front at this track. Unless some bizarre pit strategy or convenient caution arrives, you should not expect another multi-lap leading race for Ty Dillon. However, a Top-20 is certainly in the picture. That could be enough to beat Nemechek to advance to the final. This will certainly be something to watch during Sunday’s race.

Denny Hamlin

In recent weeks, speed has been difficult to come by for the 11 team. Although Denny Hamlin finished fourth at Chicago, it was not based on pure speed. The 11 team has struggled to put together a full weekend. However, it should not be cause for concern. The past 3 weekends have been a superspeedway and 2 road courses. Before that, Hamlin rattled off 3 straight podium finished at Nashville, Michigan, and Pocono. With a standard oval returning this weekend, expect the 11 car to be back upfront.

Dover Motor Speedway has been a successful track for Denny Hamlin. Last year, Hamlin conquered Miles the Monster and held off a hard charging Kyle Larson. Hamlin will look to go back-to-back at the Delaware track. What is almost a lock is that Hamlin will find his way to the lead. The JGR driver has managed to lead at least 2 laps in every race at Dover since 2021. Extending it back to 2019, Hamlin has led a total of 542 laps on the Monster Mile. The ultimate question is whether any of the laps that Hamlin leads on Sunday will be the final one.

BetRivers 200

Sammy Smith

2025 has been a strange season for Sammy Smith. Although he is locked into the playoffs via a win, he sits 10th in points and has not been ranked in the single digits since Texas. Speaking of that win, that only came to be after Jesse Love was disqualified after winning at Rockingham. Still, a win is a win and a playoff spot is a playoff spot. However, Smith is definitely feels like the odd duck at Jr Motorsports. He does not have the hype of either rookie nor the veteran presence of Justin Allgaier.

That said, Sammy Smith is making strides in his second season with JRM. His average finish has improved thus far by .7 spots and he is on pace to best his highs in Top-5s and 10s. Plus, Smith has a Top-10 in 5 of the past 6 races. Heading to Dover, Smith will look to rebound from his DNF last year. Obviously, the eyes will be fixated on his JRM teammates. Allgaier should be one of the favorites while Connor Zilisch and Carson Kvapil usually stay in the center of attention. However, keep an eye on Sammy Smith. His recent strong runs indicate the 8 car will be featured prominently inside the Top-10. It would not be surprising to see Smith turn into a contender on Saturday.

Kaz Grala

Normally, the same driver is not featured this closely between races. The 6 Drivers to Watch series attempts to highlight drivers throughout the field. However, this week marks a special exception. One that does not apply to Kaz Grala (who was featured in the Chicago Drivers to Watch article). Rather, this exception is being used to highlight the team he is running for this weekend: Our Motorsports. Earlier in the week, it was announced that Our Motorsports and Kris Wright had agreed to part ways for the remainder of the 2025 season. Kaz Grala was announced as the driver for this weekend at Dover. On Friday, the team announced that it would be ceasing its NASCAR operations.

Talk about a whirlwind of a week. Our Motorsports went from fulltime Xfinity Series team to shut down in under a week. Making their Xfinity debut in 2020, Our Motorsports established themselves firmly in that second tier of the series. While they did expand a bit too quickly, Anthony Alfredo pushed the organization into relevancy last year. Finishing 15th in points, Alfredo became a popular name to swing around the underdog picks to win weekly. After deciding to partner with Kris Wright though, the team took a steep drop off. Failing to qualify for Chicago seemingly started the beginning of the end for the team. Hopefully, Kaz Grala can give the team a solid swan song in their final race.

Daniel Dye

Kaulig Racing’s Xfinity Series program is still in a bit of a flux. Especially with AJ Allmendinger returning to the Cup Series, the former top tier team has fallen back into the pack. Sure, Christian Eckes is starting to find his form while Josh Williams is there. Meanwhile, Daniel Dye is the make or break cog in this machine. He has yet to impress in his rookie season, but is showing signs of improvement as the year drags on. However, bad luck has bitten the young driver. After scoring 7 Top-15s in 8 races from Martinsville through Texas, Dye has only accomplished that feat twice since.

Road racing clearly did not agree with the Florida native. Perhaps a return to an oval will help swing things back in his direction. This will be Dye’s second start at the Monster Mile. Last year, Dye finished 20th in one of his 10 spot starts with Kaulig. Hopefully, that experience will aid him in finding a solid result. Dover is a tough track for rookies though, so Dye’s lone start could give him an advantage over the others. While he will not be a front runner on Saturday, Dye has a great shout at impressing in Delaware.

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