Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch: Sonoma

After hitting the streets of Chicago, NASCAR heads out west to wine country. Sonoma is ready to host the Cup and Xfinity Series as both enter back-to-back weekends of road racing. This weekend marks the third road course race out of five races. Throw in Watkins Glen in a month’s time and that will be four road courses squeezed into a 9 week stretch. Maybe that is why there is some displeasure coming from fans about road courses. If not for that fatigue, perhaps the assumption that Shane van Gisbergen will continue to dominate both series is having people dread. Still, that should not take away from Sonoma, which is a classic NASCAR road course. Between the two series, who will be the Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch for Sonoma?

Are both races essentially Shane van Gisbergen vs the field? The last 3 road course races that SVG has featured, he has clearly walloped the competition. Mexico City and Chicago were shining examples of how well van Gisbergen can master road course racing. However, fans might want to hold off on declaring SVG this weekend’s winner, at least for Cup. On the Xfinity Series side, it is probably safe to bank on SVG being Goliath to the field of Davids. However, the Cup Series should offer strong competition. While SVG has impressed across multiple road courses, he has not dominated a road course at the Cup Series level outside of Chicago and Mexico City. On road courses where the field has more experience, they can bring the fight to SVG. For the Toyota/Save Mart 350, there are plenty of potential winners.

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Ryan Blaney

While his win at Nashville might imply Ryan Blaney’s season is on the upswing, his string of recent results would tell a different story. Since his win, Blaney has failed to score a Top-10 in 4 of the past 5 races. More concerningly, Blaney has only managed to lead 13 laps. Of those 13, 3 came last week when the leaders gave it up to flip the stage. Bad luck has certainly played a critical part in Blaney’s poor results. Plus, the type of tracks where the 12 team has fallen behind are not exactly strengths for Penske (other than Atlanta). Still, Blaney fans would like to see their driver hit his stride as the regular season starts to wane.

Although Ryan Blaney is not a bad road racer, it certainly is not one of his best track types. He is solid enough to score Top-10s, but you should not really expect him to compete for the win. Especially at Sonoma, where Blaney has not scored a Top-5 since 2019. In the NextGen era, Blaney has a couple of Top-10s sandwiched around a 31st result in 2023. Bottomline, the 12 team will likely run between 8th and 15th all race long. Using strategy and other drivers’ misfortunes, Blaney will be able to rise up the leaderboard. Why you should be watching Blaney is to see if he can gain momentum heading into a more favorable piece the schedule. Remember, every points position gained is more playoff points for the championship battle.

John Hunter Nemechek

One of the biggest surprises thus far in the 2025 season has been John Hunter Nemechek. After looking out of his element in his 2024 campaign, Nemechek has bounced back for a respectable second season with Legacy Motor Club. Through 19 races, the young driver has collected a Top-5 along with 6 Top-10s. His average finishing position (18.9) has improved by 6.5 spots compared to last year. At this point, he has tied his lead lap finish count from last season as well. Effectively, NASCAR fans are seeing the JHN many thought was possible during his career reset after his 2020 rookie season.

One of his recent Top-10s arrived down in Mexico City. Impressively, Nemechek maintained a Top-5 spot for the bulk of the final stage before his old tires gave way to fresher ones. Still, that drive certainly turned heads. Despite damage last week in Chicago, Nemechek managed to gut out a Top-15 performance and advance in the In-Season Tournament. Sonoma offers another opportunity for the Legacy driver to impress. Last year, Nemechek failed to finish on the lead lap at Sonoma. Hopefully, his recent strong runs on road courses will boost him in the right direction. Plus, this weekend sees him matched up against his LMC teammate Erik Jones for the Round of 8. Who will move on in the tournament: the crafty veteran or the surprise driver of 2025? This will certainly be something to watch this weekend.

Michael McDowell

Looking for a driver to unseat Shane van Gisbergen from the road course pedestal? Why not take a gander at the man who led all of Stage 1 last week. Michael McDowell managed to get the best of van Gisbergen at the start of the Chicago race. Leading every lap of the opening stage, McDowell looked to be heavy competition for the New Zealander. Unfortunately, the 71’s throttle got stuck and McDowell was knocked out of contention shortly into Stage 2. However, the speed that this Spire team showed last week and in Mexico certainly hints that they could be the one to stop Trackhouse from winning a third straight road course.

Speed has not been an issue for the 71 team this year. There have been numerous races where McDowell has started upfront or found his way there near the end of the race. However, the litany of poor results stems from errors between driver and team. It has crippled their playoff chances to the point where it is win or go home. For McDowell, his best shot at getting that win is a road course or superspeedway. There might not be a better place than Sonoma though. In the NextGen era, McDowell is averaging a 4.0 average finish at Sonoma. With the qualifying speed Spire has demonstrated, McDowell should start out with great track position again. As long as the car does not break, there is no reason to think McDowell will not be a threat to win this weekend.

Pit Boss/FoodMaxx 250

Justin Allgaier

Historically, Justin Allgaier has been a strong road course driver in the Xfinity Series. The JRM mainstay has collected 3 wins and 36 Top-10s while driving on the lefts and rights. Despite this, 2025 has not been a kind year to the reigning champion. Through 18 starts, Allgaier has only failed to finish on the lead lap 4 times. Of those 4 times, one occurred on a road course (Mexico City). His other 2 road course starts might have seen a lead lap finish, but the results were still poor. Between these 3 races, Allgaier is averaging a weak 28.7 finish. Tough luck can mostly be attributed to that, as his average starting spot in those races was a more promising 7.3.

Can the 7 team break this cycle of poor road course races this weekend? In his lone 2 starts at Sonoma, Allgaier scored Top-10s. While that is good, he failed to lead a single lap in either race. This should imply that Allgaier is set for another Top-10 results. However, Allagier’s misfortunes might catch up to him again. Plus, Allgaier has not shown the some prowess on this road course as others from Xfinity’s past. All 3 of Allgaier’s road course wins have taken place on tracks no longer hosting NASCAR action. Sonoma is a bit of an enigma, so there is little to fully compare when planning this weekend out. Hopefully, Allgaier can shake off the bad luck of late and put together a competitive race. With JRM equipment, there is an argument to be made that he could be the best non-favorite in the field.

Riley Herbst

If there was a Cup Series driver who needed a confidence boost, it would be Riley Herbst. His rookie campaign has been a struggle thus far. Through 19 races, Herbst is averaging a 25.5 place finish with no Top-10s. His best result on the season is a measly 14th, which is the worst best result for any fulltime Cup driver. For whatever reason, things have not clicked for the Herbst or the 35 team. On Saturday though, Herbst will be stepping back into a JGR Xfinity ride. With that team’s speed, the Cup rookie should be able to find his footing well in the second series.

Although this is likely meant to be a confidence boost, Riley Herbst could use the practice on road courses. Despite his 10 Top-10s through 32 Xfinity starts, Herbst’s average finish sits at 22.3 on road courses. When almost every one of those starts was in the best equipment, that does not appear too positive. The goal for this weekend’s Xfinity start should be a Top-10. This should build confidence for Herbst heading into Sunday’s race. However, there are plenty of strong road racers littered through the Xfinity Series now. It is no guarantee that Herbst will finish in the Top-10. Despite the top notch equipment, Herbst will have to fight for a solid result.

Alex Labbe

One of the most underrated drivers in NASCAR is Alex Labbe. A road course ringer for the lower series, Labbe is liable to take any car/truck he is given and put it inside the Top-15. Labbe has an excellent ability to maximize whatever is chucked his way and make it great. Last week, the Canadian driver piloted the 07 car to a 12th place finish. This marked Labbe’s third Top-15 on the season (all coming at road courses). Despite clearly being in lower equipment, Alex Labbe manages to find himself putting together solid runs.

Saturday will mark Alex Labbe’s third straight start at Sonoma Raceway. In his previous 2 encounters with wine country, Labbe finished on the lead lap. Last year, Labbe took the same car he will driver this weekend and finished where he started: 19th. Now, no one is expecting the 07 to feature in the battle for the win. If Labbe gets near the lead, it is likely during the end of a stage when the leaders are flipping it. That said, you should watch Labbe this weekend. It is a tremendous skill to pull out Top-15 runs from underfunded equipment. If Labbe had a chance with a top team on a road course, he surely would be a contender for a Top-5.

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