This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Chicago Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Chicago Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Austin Cindric
Finished: 38th
Last weeks winner: Chase Elliott
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-For the 8th week in a row (including All-Star Race) at least one driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-9 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-25 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the 40 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished outside the Top 30
Notes from all point race projections this year (18 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 32 of 686, 4.66%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 267 of 686, 38.92%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 293 of 686, 42.71%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 18, 22.22%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 80 of 180, 44.44%
Notable results this week
Winner: Michael McDowell
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Kyle Larson
The last time Michael McDowell won a Cup race he was kissing the bricks at the Indy Road Course. This week the stats say he’ll be kissing the Chicago roads this weekend with a win. Photo by Jeremy Hogan — SOPA Images — LightRocket via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 32nd -31 |
| 2. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -16 |
| 3. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 24th -18 |
| 7. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 23rd -15 |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 35th -26 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 16th -5 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 40th -29 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 37th -15 |
| 13. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 6th +7 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 28th -14 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 10th +5 |
| 16. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 38th -20 |
| 19. | 13 | Will Brown | 39th -20 |
| 20. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +13 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 41 | Cole Custer | 33rd -10 |
| 24. | 22 | Joey Logano | 11th +13 |
| 25. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 36th -11 |
| 26. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 7 | Justin Haley | 22nd +5 |
| 28. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 38 | Zane Smith | 14th +15 |
| 30. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 30th +0 |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th +14 |
| 32. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 4th +28 |
| 33. | 33 | Austin Hill | 9th +24 |
| 34. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 21th +13 |
| 35. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 19th +16 |
| 36. | 43 | Erik Jones | 25th +11 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 26th +11 |
| 38. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 31st +7 |
| 39. | 21 | Josh Berry | 34th +5 |
| 40. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 20th +20 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.