This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Indianapolis Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Dover Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Big tracks (2+ miles, non-drafting, non-road course) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Kyle Busch 11th)
-14 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (21 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 38 of 800, 4.75%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 310 of 800, 38.75%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 342 of 800, 42.75%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 21, 19.05%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 94 of 210, 44.76%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Erik Jones
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
Kyle Larson got to kiss the bricks at Indy last year, and based on the stats with his speed this weekend he is projected to do so again this year. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 43 | Erik Jones | 36th -34 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 21st -18 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 16th -12 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 29th -24 |
| 6. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 1st +7 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 13th -4 |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 12th +0 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 8th +5 |
| 14. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 33rd -19 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 14th +1 |
| 16. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 30th -14 |
| 17. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th -8 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 32nd -14 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 27th -8 |
| 20. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 4th +16 |
| 21. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 38 | Zane Smith | 31st -9 |
| 23. | 21 | Josh Berry | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 23rd +1 |
| 25. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd +22 |
| 26. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 6th +21 |
| 28. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 39th -11 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 38th -9 |
| 30. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th +21 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 62 | Jesse Love | 24th +8 |
| 33. | 7 | Justin Haley | 11th +22 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 26th +8 |
| 35. | 41 | Cole Custer | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 34th +2 |
| 37. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 17th +20 |
| 38. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 28th +10 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 37th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.