With Austin Dillon’s win the Cup Playoff picture is pretty clear cut, but if there is a new winner this weekend at Daytona then the Playoff picture will shake up some more. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

As long as their is no new eligible winner (other than Reddick) Alex Bowman is safely into the Cup Series Driver Playoffs, but if someone new does win it becomes pretty dicey. Photo by Meg Oliphant — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

Regular Season Championship
1) William Byron
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd (3)
      • Clinched
Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios
15) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (2), 4th (2)
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs the following scenario
        • Be within 28 points of Alex Bowman
16) Alex Bowman
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd (2), 4th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs the following scenario
        • 30+ points more than Tyler Reddick
Cutline
17+) Everyone Else
      • Must Win to Clinch Playoff Spot

The No.24 all but has the 2025 Owner Regular Season Championship wrapped up, but there is still a way they could lose it. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

Regular Season Championship
1) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/ best finishes this year: 1st (2)
      • Needs 3 points (34th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs the following scenario
        • Be within 58 points of the No.11
2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/ best finishes this year: 1st (4)
      • Needs the following scenario
        • 59+ points more than the No.24
Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios
15) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (2), 4th (2)
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs the following scenario
        • Be within 28 points of the No.48
16) Hendrick Motorsports No.48
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd (2), 4th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs the following scenario
        • 30+ points more than the No.45
Cutline
17+) Everyone Else
      • Must Win to Clinch Playoff Spot