This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Fall Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Darlington Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Bubba Wallace
Finished: 37th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 10th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Michael McDowell 12th & Brad Keselowski 18th)
-10 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-23 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the 40 drivers finished 30+ spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-5 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (26 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 46 of 993, 4.63%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 386 of 993, 38.87%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 422 of 993, 42.50%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 26, 19.23%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 115 of 260, 44.23%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ryan Blaney
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
William Byron dominated the Darlington race this Spring, but he came up one spot short. The projection below says he gets that spot this weekend. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 21st -20 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th -8 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 19th -15 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 7th -2 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 29th -20 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 20th -10 |
| 11. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 22nd -10 |
| 13. | 7 | Justin Haley | 27th -14 |
| 14. | 21 | Josh Berry | 38th -24 |
| 15. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 17th -2 |
| 16. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 5th +11 |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th +7 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 25th -7 |
| 19. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 33rd -14 |
| 20. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +12 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 26th -4 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 3rd +20 |
| 24. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 14th +10 |
| 25. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +10 |
| 26. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 16th +10 |
| 27. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 31st -4 |
| 28. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 9th +19 |
| 29. | 38 | Zane Smith | 13th +16 |
| 30. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 32nd -2 |
| 31. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 41 | Cole Custer | 24th +8 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 28th +6 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 4th +31 |
| 36. | 66 | Timmy Hill | 35th +1 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 37th +0 |
| 38. | 44 | Derek Kraus | 36th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.