This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Fall Daytona Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Daytona Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-superspeedway tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 10th
Last weeks winner: Austin Dillon
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Todd Gilliland 25th)
-4 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (25 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 44 of 953, 4.62%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 376 of 953, 39.45%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 399 of 953, 41.87%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 25, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 112 of 250, 44.80%
Notable results this week
Winner: Bubba Wallace
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Ross Chastain
Bubba Wallace has already won at one historic racetrack this year, and according to the projection he’ll make that 2 historic racetracks this weekend. Photo by Justin Casterline — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 37th -36 |
| 2. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 36th -34 |
| 3. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 39th -36 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 10th -6 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th -2 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 19th -13 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 27th -20 |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 21st -13 |
| 9. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 33rd -24 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +9 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 13th -2 |
| 12. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 12th +0 |
| 13. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 38th -25 |
| 14. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 17th -3 |
| 15. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 23rd -8 |
| 16. | 43 | Erik Jones | 5th +11 |
| 17. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 35th -18 |
| 18. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 33 | Austin Hill | 30th -11 |
| 20. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 34th -14 |
| 21. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 8th +13 |
| 22. | 38 | Zane Smith | 31st -9 |
| 23. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 40th -16 |
| 25. | 44 | Joey Gase | 28th -3 |
| 26. | 66 | Casey Mears | 29th -3 |
| 27. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 41 | Cole Custer | 4th +24 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 22nd +7 |
| 30. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 51 | Cody Ware | 20th +11 |
| 32. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 14th +18 |
| 33. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th +9 |
| 34. | 21 | Josh Berry | 9th +25 |
| 35. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 2nd +33 |
| 36. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 38th -2 |
| 37. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 15th +22 |
| 38. | 7 | Justin Haley | 3rd +35 |
| 39. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 32nd +7 |
| 40. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 16th +24 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.