This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Iowa Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Iowa Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Bubba Wallace
Projected Finish: 8th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Carson Hocevar 10th & John Hunter Nemechek 12th)
-7 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 16 drivers finished inside the Top 16
Notes from all point race projections this year (22 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 40 of 839, 4.77%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 324 of 839, 38.62%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 360 of 839, 42.91%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 22, 18.18%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 98 of 220, 44.55%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Chase Briscoe
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
The only win Chase Elliott has in his NASCAR career at Iowa came in an ARCA East/West race in 2012. However, he is projected to get his next Iowa NASCAR win this weekend. Photo by Jamie Squire — Getty Images for NASCAR
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 14th -13 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 28th -25 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th -2 |
| 6. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th -18 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th -10 |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 19th -11 |
| 9. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +7 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 3rd +8 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th +1 |
| 13. | 7 | Justin Haley | 23rd -10 |
| 14. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevear | 8th +7 |
| 16. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18th -2 |
| 17. | 22 | Joey Logano | 9th +8 |
| 18. | 21 | Josh Berry | 13th +5 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 12th +7 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 16th +4 |
| 21. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 35th -14 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 25th -3 |
| 23. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 21st +3 |
| 25. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 27th -2 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th +6 |
| 27. | 41 | Cole Custer | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 30th -2 |
| 29. | 66 | Joey Gase | 37th -8 |
| 30. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 5th +25 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -2 |
| 32. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 38 | Zane Smith | 36th -3 |
| 34. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 22nd +12 |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 29th +6 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 32nd +4 |
| 37. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 15th +22 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.