This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Richmond Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Richmond Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 1st, Chris Buescher 3rd, William Byron 4th
-8 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 6 drivers finished inside the Top 6
Notes from all point race projections this year (24 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 43 of 915, 4.70%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 359 of 915, 39.23%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 384 of 915, 41.97%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 24, 20.83%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 108 of 240, 45.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ryan Preece
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Denny Hamlin was able to walk away with the checkered flag at Richmond in the 2024 Spring race and this weekend he is projected to do it yet again. Photo by Alex Slitz — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 10th -9 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 38th -36 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 12th -9 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 28th -23 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 21st -15 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 2nd +5 |
| 8. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 35th -27 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 34th -25 |
| 10. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 16th -4 |
| 13. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 15th -1 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -4 |
| 16. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 21 | Josh Berry | 8th +9 |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 30th -12 |
| 19. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 18th +1 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 22nd -2 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 5th +16 |
| 22. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 20th +2 |
| 23. | 22 | Joey Logano | 4th +19 |
| 24. | 67 | Corey Heim | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 17th +10 |
| 28. | 33 | Jesse Love | 33rd -5 |
| 29. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 31st -2 |
| 30. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 27th +3 |
| 31. | 7 | Justin Haley | 37th -6 |
| 32. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 14th +18 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 36th -3 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 24th +10 |
| 35. | 43 | Erik Jones | 26th +9 |
| 36. | 38 | Zane Smith | 11th +25 |
| 37. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd +14 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 32nd +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.